2022 Indianapolis 500 odds, predictions, starting grid: Computer reveals surprising IndyCar picks, best bets

The Greatest Spectacle in Racing takes place on Sunday with the 2022 Indianapolis 500. Will Power sits atop the IndyCar Series standings and will look to widen the gap between him and everyone else by winning his second Indy 500. He will be in the middle of the 2022 Indianapolis 500 starting grid, while Scott Dixon is on the pole after posting the fastest Indy 500 pole speed of all time. Helio Castroneves won the race last year and another victory would make him the first driver with five Indianapolis 500 wins. Indianapolis Motor Speedway will host Sunday’s race with the green flag set to drop at 12:45 p.m. ET. 

Caesars Sportsbook lists Dixon as the 4-1 favorite, with other contenders including Alex Palou (9-2) and Pato O’Ward (17-2). Jimmie Johnson is listed at 16-1 in the latest Indianapolis 500 2022 odds, while long shots include Castroneves (25-1) and Juan Pablo Montoya (100-1). Before scouring the 2022 Indy 500 starting grid and making any 2022 Indianapolis 500 predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 Indianapolis 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary auto racing prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 NASCAR season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 Indianapolis 500 (see tickets at StubHub) 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Indy 500 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Indy 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Colton Herta, even though he’s an 18-1 long shot in the latest 2022 Indianapolis 500 odds. The 22-year-old has come a long way since finishing dead last due to a gearbox failure in his Indy 500 debut in 2019. He finished eighth in 2020 and 16th last year, but he led the latter for 13 laps in just his second race in the No. 26 car for Curb Agajanian.

Herta will enter the 2022 Indy 500 with something no other driver can claim and that’s a victory in his last outing. He dominated the GMR Grand Prix two weeks ago, not only winning but also leading for the most laps and posting the fastest lap. He’s now won three of his last seven IndyCar races and he already owns a victory at The Brickyard, courtesy of his 2018 Freedom 100 win on the Indy Lights circuit. Herta has a much better chance to win than his long Indianapolis 500 2022 odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

And a massive shocker: Pato O’Ward, one of the Vegas favorites at 17-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 Indy 500 starting grid. The 23-year-old Mexican driver debuted in IndyCar in 2018 and he’s made three trips to Victory Lane early in his IndyCar career and recorded top-six finishes in the last two Indy 500s.

However, he’s still inexperienced with just 43 career IndyCar starts under his belt and he’ll have to hope that the Hondas don’t link up and pull away early. Four of the six drivers ahead of him on the 2022 Indianapolis 500 starting grid are in Hondas and they’ll be likely to work together early. O’Ward is currently seventh in the 2022 IndyCar standings.

How to make 2022 Indianapolis 500 picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with 2022 Indy 500 odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s Indy 500 projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Indy 500 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 Indianapolis 500 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Indianapolis 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season. 

2022 Indianapolis 500 odds (via Caesars Sportsbook)

Scott Dixon 4-1
Alex Palou 9-2
Pato O’Ward 17-2
Josef Newgarden 10-1
Rinus VeeKay 12-1
Marcus Ericsson 14-1
Takuma Sato 14-1
Jimmie Johnson 16-1
Will Power 18-1
Colton Herta 18-1
Tony Kanaan 18-1
Ed Carpenter 22-1
Scott McLaughlin 22-1
Simon Pagenaud 25-1
Romain Grosjean 25-1
Helio Castroneves 25-1
Felix Rosenqvist 25-1
Alexander Rossi 30-1
Graham Rahal 50-1
David Malukas 50-1
Conor Daly 50-1
Marco Andretti 60-1
J.R. Hildebrand 75-1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100-1
Sage Karam 100-1
Jack Harvey 125-1
Santino Ferrucci 125-1
Kyle Kirkwood 150-1
Callum Illot 150-1
Christian Lundgaard 200-1
Devlin DeFrancesco 250-1
Stefan Wilson 500-1
Dalton Kellett 500-1

Indianapolis 500 starting grid

Row 1- Scott Dixon, Alex Palou, Rinus VeeKay
Row 2- Ed Carpenter, Marcus Ericsson, Tony Kanaan
Row 3- Pato O’Ward, Felix Rosenqvist, Romain Grosjean
Row 4- Takuma Sato, Will Power, Jimmie Johnson
Row 5- David Malukas, Josef Newgarden, Santino Ferruci
Row 6- Simon Pagenaud, J.R. Hildebrand, Conor Daly
Row 7- Callum Ilott, Alexander Rossi, Graham Rahal
Row 8- Sage Karam, Marco Andretti, Devlin DeFrancesco
Row 9- Colton Herta, Scott McLaughlin, Helio Castroneves
Row 10- Kyle Kirkwood, Dalton Kellett, Juan Pablo Montoya
Row 11- Christian Lundgaard, Jack Harvey, Stefan Wilson