Exit polls 2024: Fears for American democracy, economic discontent drive voters

Americans are going to the polls Tuesday to cast their ballots in the historic election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Surveys ahead of Election Day found the two candidates in a virtual dead heat nationally and in several key swing states.

Broad economic discontent, sharp divisions about the nation’s future and polarized views of the major-party candidates mark voter attitudes nationally in ABC News preliminary exit poll results.

The state of democracy prevailed narrowly as the most important issue to voters out of five tested in the exit poll.

The country and democracy

Voters broadly express more negative than positive views about the country’s direction: Just 26% are enthusiastic or satisfied with the way things are going, versus 72% dissatisfied or angry.

More voters see American democracy as threatened than say it’s secure, 73% to 25%. Still, about 6 in 10 in these preliminary exit poll results say the country’s best days are ahead of it, versus about a third who say the country’s best days are in the past.

Extremism and candidate favorability

Fifty-five percent call Trump’s views “too extreme,” and he’s underwater in personal favorability, 44%-55%. Fewer call Harris’ views too extreme (46%), though she’s also underwater in personal favorability, albeit slightly, 48%-50%.

Favorability isn’t determinative: Just 40% saw Trump favorably in 2016, when he won the Electoral College (albeit not the popular vote). One reason is that almost as few, 43%, had a favorable view of his opponent that year, Hillary Clinton. (In 2020, Trump’s favorability rating was 46%; Joe Biden’s was 52%.)

Underscoring the emotion associated with the contest, preliminarily 36% of voters say they’d be “scared” if Trump were elected, while 29% would be scared by a Harris win.

In terms of personal attributes, voters in preliminary results pick having the ability to lead as tops among four that were tested in the exit poll.

The economy and Biden

The economy remains a key irritant. Voters say it’s in bad shape by 67%-32%. And 45% say their own financial situation is worse now than four years ago, versus 30% the same, with just 24% doing better. The “worse off” number exceeds its 2008 level, then 42%, and far outpaces its shares in 2020 (20%) and 2016 (28%).

President Joe Biden takes the heat, with just a 41% job approval rating (58% disapprove). It’s been a challenge for Harris to persuade voters she’s taking a new direction from Biden’s. (Biden’s approval rating is the lowest for an incumbent president in exit polls since George W. Bush’s 27% as he left office in 2008. Trump managed 50% job approval in 2020, yet Biden beat him anyway.)

Top issues

The state of democracy prevails narrowly as the most important issue to voters out of five tested in the exit polls. Thirty-five percent of voters ranked it as their top issue, followed by 31% who said the economy, 14% who said abortion, 11% who said immigration and 4% who said foreign policy.

Abortion stands out in importance to women, at 19% in preliminary results, versus 8% among men, and rises to 42% among women younger than 30. (Women account for 53% of all voters, preliminarily; men, 47%.)

Trump is more trusted than Harris on immigration and the economy in the preliminary exit polls while Harris leads Trump in trust on abortion.

Sixty-six percent overall say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, a central focus of Harris’s campaign. (Support for legal abortion hit a low in exit polls, 51%, in 2020; its previous peak was 63% in 1992.)

On immigration, a central focus for Trump, 39% say most undocumented immigrants should be deported, up from 26% in 2016 and 28% in 2012. Fifty-seven percent say undocumented immigrants instead should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.

Georgia

President Biden’s 11,779-vote victory four years ago made him the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state since 1992. Post-election, a recorded call of Trump pressuring Georgia’s secretary of state to “find” the votes Trump needed focused the nation on Georgia’s election integrity.

In preliminary exit poll results, 81% of Georgia voters say they’re very or somewhat confident the state’s elections are being conducted fairly and accurately, more than say so nationally (68%). These views are bipartisan, ranging from 94% of Democrats to 78% of independents and 72% of Republicans.

Regardless, 68% of Georgia voters overall see U.S. democracy as somewhat or very threatened.

Moreover, 42% of Trump voters in these preliminary results say that if he loses Georgia’s official vote count, he should challenge the results rather than accept them. Half as many supporters of Kamala Harris say she should challenge a losing result, 21%.

Forty percent of Georgia voters rate the economy as the most important issue in their vote, tops among five issues tested and more than the 31% who say so nationally. That’s driven in part by the 52% who say they’re worse off financially than four years ago, up considerably from just 16% in 2020 and surpassing a previous high of 33% in available exit polls since 1992. About three-quarters (73%) say the national economy is in not so good or poor shape, surpassing the 67% who say so nationally.

Thirty percent of Georgia voters in these preliminary results are Black, on par with the share in 2020 (29%) and the most of any swing state. Georgia voters overall divide evenly between Harris and Trump in trust to handle racial issues, 50%-48%; 32% of white voters pick Harris on this question, rising to 89% of Black voters.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, voters are split on whether federal hurricane aid is going to the people who need it: 47% think it is, while 50% say it’s not.