UEFA Champions League Power Rankings: Liverpool and Manchester City in collision course for final in Paris

The last four clubs in the Champions League are set in stone.

In many ways, this is as ideal a quartet as one could wish for in any Champions League semifinals: The two best teams in Europe, this competition’s winningest club and the little team that could, who have already sent European giants tumbling in their wakes. Unai Emery and Carlo Ancelotti have guided the Spanish representatives to the last four the hard way, pointing to a depth of tactical acumen in La Liga that has survived even as superstars have gravitated towards other leagues.

Some of those were taken down as Real Madrid sent down Paris Saint-Germain and then Chelsea, a roll of victories perhaps even more impressive than those notched up by Villarreal, though there is nothing to be sniffed at in overcoming Juventus and then stalling out the Bayern Munich attacking juggernaut.

Those results are enough to suggest that no one should take an all-English final for granted but it does seem the most likely outcome. As these two proved on Sunday, they are capable of a level that few have reached before them. They will start as favorites for their semifinals due to their exceptional talent, backed up by the sort of dizzying depth that allows Jurgen Klopp to rotate en masse for his second leg against Benfica. Perhaps, though, the demands these two are placing on each other in England might tell on the European stage. For now, however, that seems unlikely.

Here’s how we rank the teams left in the Champions League:

1. Liverpool (–)

Ultimately, Liverpool take top spot over City due to a somewhat more favorable semifinal draw, super-powered offenses might have crashed against the Villarreal rock so far, but the Yellow Submarines haven’t seen such a weight of options as those that Klopp has. Take the second leg against Benfica, where Roberto Firmino came in to score a brace while Luis Diaz schemed, Kostas Tsimikas made a host of chances and Naby Keita brought dynamism to midfield. That quartet is notable because none are likely starters for the semifinal first leg, just a few of the players who could be tasked with turning the tide if Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane can’t get the job done.

The three goals they conceded to Darwin Nunez and company are likely more reflective of them taking their foot off the gas with the tie long since won. No matter what the scoreline, if Virgil van Dijk had started, they simply would not have allowed them to happen anyway. 

2. Manchester City (–)

As we mentioned above, these two teams are a fair way ahead of the rest of the field and a case could be made for City leading the way on the back of the way they shaded their last encounter in the Premier League. Were it to come down to an all-English final, this column might make Pep Guardiola’s side slight favorites with all factors such as fitness and form being equal.

City certainly had the look of potential champions in their second leg against Atletico Madrid. Even when the pressure came — and in the second half Los Rojiblancos delivered it with a ferocity befitting of their manager — their defense buckled without breaking. For the time he was on the pitch, Kyle Walker looked a vital weapon in quelling any breaks in behind while the tandem of John Stones and Aymeric Laporte have been so good of late that there is an argument Ruben Dias ought to have to fight to win his place back. After years in which it seemed City too easily slipped into shootouts, they now profile as defensive powerhouses, the only team left in the competition to give up fewer than one expected goal (xG) per game.

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3. Real Madrid (+2)

Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea might both believe that over the course of their ties with Real Madrid they were the better team. What neither of them did not have, however, is Luka Modric and Karim Benzema. Both proved to be game-changers in ties that looked to be slipping out of reach for Ancelotti, with the latter in particular seeming hellbent on dragging his team to Paris.

Madrid have scored eight goals in knockout stages, their No. 9 has delivered seven of them. They have tallied 5.25 xG, 2.95 of them going to Benzema. In other words, 56% of their shot quality is through one man. There are other great players across this team, but if anything should limit their Frenchman’s effectiveness come the semifinals then it will be a tough task indeed to win their 14th European Cup.

4. Villarreal (+3)

This column often goes to great lengths to toll the bell of doom for the little teams whose success has been based on defending that just does not look sustainable in the long run. Not this time. It simply has to be said that Emery’s Villarreal are an outstanding defensive unit; if they can keep Bayern Munich to one goal over 180 minutes, they’re going to be an extremely tough nut for Liverpool to crack.

Villarreal’s performances over the two legs were not some defensive fluke. Bayern in the first half of the second leg, chasing the game and dominating possession, had just eight shots worth a combined 0.4 xG. In the opening match, they put up shots worth 1.59 xG then 1.42 in the second. Those numbers might be impressive for an average team, they rank in the five worst attacking output games the Bundesliga champions have had in European and league play this season. Bayern continually had to settle for bad efforts from range, as the shot chart above illustrates.

It is still a big ask to suggest that Villarreal repeat the trick again in the semifinal. Liverpool might be the only team with greater attacking firepower than the Bavarians but they may well need every ounce of it to flush out El Submarino Amarillo.