The Heat and Hornets are going to put up a lot of points, plus other best bets for Tuesday

Good afternoon fellow gamblers, it’s Chris Bengel back in the saddle with you once again. I hope everyone had a great night betting on Monday’s national title game between Kansas and North Carolina. Unfortunately, I was on the Kansas spread at -4 and let’s just say that one hurt quite a bit. 

If you took the North Carolina side of the spread, you had to sweat it out, but you pulled out a win. Kudos to you if that’s the case. Anyway, enough dwelling on the past. I’ve got some NBA and NHL picks for you that can turn the tide. Let’s dive into the picks!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

 Hornets vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV

• Key Trend: The over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last four games as a home favorite
• The Pick: Over 226.5 points (-110)

With the NBA regular season beginning to draw to a close, teams are fighting for playoff seeding. That’s certainly the case when it comes to the Heat and Hornets. Just 2.5 games separate the Heat from the likes of the Bucks, Celtics and 76ers in the Eastern Conference standings. Meanwhile, the Hornets are battling for seeding in the play-in tournament as they currently are in ninth place in the East.

With that in mind, both the Heat and Hornets are going to need to be playing their best basketball down the stretch, and that could lead to both squads being more aggressive. The Hornets have scored at least 109 points in each of their last four games while the Heat have netted at least 114 points in three of their past four games. In addition, the Hornets possess the fifth-highest scoring offense in the league at 114.8 points-per-game. While the Heat only average 109.5 points-per-game, this is definitely an offensive unit that is more than capable of putting points on the board. 

Over their last six games, the over has been 6-0 when the Hornets are playing on two days rest and Charlotte last played on Saturday against the Sixers. Meanwhile, the over is 4-0 in the Heat’s last four home games. Anytime the Hornets are involved, the over is definitely in play. Don’t overthink this one.

The Picks

NBA

Hawks at Raptors, 7:30 p.m. | TV: NBA.TV
The Pick: Fred VanVleet Under 3.5 Threes (-120): — Raptors guard Fred VanVleet certainly can knock down shots at will from the perimeter. VanVleet is coming off a stretch in which he nailed four three against the Heat and five threes against the Magic. Even with that in mind, I’m more than comfortable betting the under of 3.5 threes when it comes to VanVleet in this spot against Toronto. In his last 12 games, VanVleet has drilled at least four threes in just those two games. In fact, VanVleet has only hit three shots from beyond the arc in six of those 12 contests. With that in mind, 3.5 threes is just too high of a number for me. 

The Hawks don’t defend the three incredibly well, as they rank 27th in the NBA in terms of their opponents’ three-point percentage. However, Van Vleet also recently faced the Bulls and Pacers, who rank in the bottom five of the league in terms of their three-point defense, and only hit a combined four threes against those struggling teams. There’s just too many contributing factors that lead me to believe that VanVleet can knock down at least four threes in this contest.

Key Trend: VanVleet has connected on at least four threes in just two of his last 12 games

 NHL

Avalanche at Penguins, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN+

The Pick: Over 6.0 goals (-120) — The Avalanche and Penguins played on Saturday with Colorado coming away with a 3-2 win. Even with the under cashing in that scenario, I’m very confident in taking the over in this particular spot. We’re talking about two of the top offensive units that the NHL has to offer. 

The Avalanche average 3.8 goals-per-game, which is good for third in the NHL, while the Penguins average the eighth-best mark with 3.3 goals per contest. With offensive star power like Cale Makar, Nazem Kadri, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the ice, I can’t help but think that the over has to hit in this scenario. The Penguins have scored at least four goals in four of their past seven games, while the Avalanche have scored at least three goals in three of their last five games. These offenses are due to break out for a goal-scoring onslaught and I truly believe that it will take place on Tuesday.

Key Trend: The over is 8-3-1 in the Penguins’ last 12 home games