Southampton vs. Burnley prediction, odds, line: Expert reveals 2022 English Premier League picks for April 20

Southampton is seeking its best finish in five years, while Burnley is just trying to remain in the top flight as the teams get set to meet Thursday in the English Premier League. The match at Burnley’s Turf Moor was originally scheduled for March 19 but was postponed as Southampton faced Manchester City in the FA Cup quarterfinals the following day. The Saints (9-12-11) lost that match 4-1 but have a chance to finish in the top half of the Premier League table for the first time since 2016-17. They are in 12th place, one point behind 10th-place Brighton. Burnley (4-13-14) is 18th in the EPL standings, needing to make up points on 17th-place Everton in the final seven games to avoid relegation.

Kickoff is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Southampton as a slight +155 favorite (risk $100 to win $155) on the 90-minute money line in its latest Burnley vs. Southampton odds, with Burnley the +175 underdog. A draw is priced at +240 and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you lock in any Southampton vs. Burnley picks, you need to see what red-hot SportsLine soccer insider Brandt Sutton has to say.

Sutton, a former collegiate soccer player, has been SportsLine’s top soccer editor for nearly five years. He has followed soccer closely for much longer and factors in managerial tactics, projected lineups and past performances to make the most-informed decisions possible, keeping his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe. 

Sutton also has been on a roll with his best bets, going 66-51 in his last 117 soccer picks, returning over $900 for $100 bettors during that span.

Now, Sutton has broken down the Burnley vs. Southampton matchup from every angle and just locked in his coveted picks and EPL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Southampton vs. Burnley:

• Burnley vs. Southampton spread: Southampton -0.5 (+150)
• Burnley vs. Southampton over-under: 2.5 goals 
• Burnley vs. Southampton money line: Burnley +175, Southampton +155, Draw +240 
• BUR: James Tarkowski leads the Premier League in blocks (83) and clearances (189) 
• SOU: Mohammed Salisu leads the league in successful pressures (40.5 percent)

Why you should back Southampton

The Saints ended a dismal 0-1-5 stretch with a 1-0 victory Saturday against an Arsenal team that is in the gunning for a Champions League spot. That should give the team a spark, and it has the attacking talent to get a victory. Southampton has scored 12 more goals than the Clarets (38-26), and while it holds the ball just 48 percent of the time, Burnley is last in the EPL at 38.9. The Saints also have more than a 100-shot advantage on the Clarets (417-315).

Burnley also is last in shots and shots on target and is one of just two teams with fewer than 100 on net (86). James Ward-Prowse (seven goals, four assists) is a dangerous weapon on set pieces, and Che Adams‘ pace can be a problem for any defense. He also has seven goals, while Chelsea loanee Armando Broja has six and is a relentless, aggressive presence. Broja scored one of the goals in the last meeting, a 2-2 draw.      

Why you should back Burnley

The Clarets see an opportunity, as five of their final seven games are against teams in the bottom half of the table. Southampton has lost two of its last three games against such teams, so Burnley will be after all three points. Burnley leads the league in draws but knows it needs more, so players like Wout Weghorst and Maxwel Cornet will be in attack mode. Weghorst, who had six goals with Wolfsburg, got his second with the Clarets in a 1-1 draw with West Ham on Sunday.      

Cornet scored twice in the 2-2 draw with the Saints in October and leads the team with seven goals. He will be looking to atone for a missed penalty kick in Sunday’s game. The Saints back line has shown vulnerability, allowing 52 goals (fifth-most), while Burnley’s is tough to penetrate. It leads the league in blocked shots (612). In its last match at Turf Moor, Burnley beat Everton 3-2 for a critical victory in its race against relegation. It has lost just one of its last six games against Southampton at home and has taken at least a point from nine of its 15 games there.     

How to make Burnley vs. Southampton picks

Sutton has analyzed Burnley vs. Southampton from all sides, and he is taking the under on the goal total. He also provides a confident money line best bet and has a full breakdown of the match. He’s only sharing his expert EPL picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Southampton vs. Burnley on Thursday? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Burnley vs. Southampton match, all from the soccer expert on a 66-51 run on his soccer picks, and find out.