Serie A Power Rankings: AC Milan lead the league, but Inter Milan hold on to the top spot

AC Milan are back in the first place in the Serie A table after Inter Milan drew at the Stadio Maradona against Napoli last Saturday. Juventus and Atalanta’s fight for the last Champions League spot is still on. Lazio and AS Roma are still too inconsistent to contend for fourth place while Fiorentina are back on track with a nice win away at Spezia. Elsewhere Cagliari are proving to be a different team after the January transfer window, and Salernitana decided to sack their manager and try something new, hoping that this decision will help them to avoid relegation. And now, onto the rankings. 

1 – Inter Milan (-)

Even though Inter Milan dropped out of first place in the Serie A table this week, we still consider them as leading candidates to win the title at the end of the season for two reasons. First of all, Simone Inzaghi’s side still have one game in hand to play (vs. Bologna away) so on a points per game basis they’re still league leaders. But, most importantly, Inter Milan have played so many difficult matches in the past month, including the Milan derby, Napoli away, Atalanta away and Lazio at home. For these reasons, the next few weeks should look better as the schedule eases and more points will be on the way if things go smoothly. 

2 – AC Milan (-)

It’s been an amazing week for AC Milan, with a crucial victory against Inter Milan, an easy win in Coppa Italia against Lazio at home, and ending with a 1-0 win at home against former Rossoneri coach Marco Giampaolo’s Sampdoria. It’s a result that gives Milan fans a return to the top of the table after almost three months. Rafael Leao’s goal was the difference and was assisted by goalkeeper Mike Maignan, who’s proving to be one of the best in Italy this year, after replacing Gianluigi Donnarumma who left the club at the end of last season. Maignan is second to only Inter’s Samir Handonovic in how he’s faired as compared to expected goals conceded, letting in 1.45 fewer goals than an average keeper would be predicted to given the shots he’s faced, and now he joins Lazio’s Pepe Reina as the only keepers in Italy with assists.

3 – Napoli (-)

Napoli needed a good result against Inter Milan to prove to be part of the title conversation this season. The draw against Simone Inzaghi’s side (1-1) gave to the fans a bit of regret. Napoli are still definitely in the race since they only have two points less AC Milan, but at the same time a victory could give them more hopes and a boost especially from a psychological point of view in terms of ambitions and awareness. At the sam time they seem to be sure to get a Champions League spot for the next season. 

4 – Juventus (-)

A late Danilo goal prevented Massimiliano Allegri’s team from losing a crucial match in the Champions League race away against Atalanta. Getting a point is a fine result from the match considering Atalanta won the xG battle 2.13-0.81. Nevertheless, the Bianconeri are a different team after their January transfer business, and that’s led to a new atmosphere, with much more confidence, especially thanks to the signing of Serbian striker Dusan Vlahović. With a win in Bergamo, Allegri was hoping to aim also to be part of the conversation for the title race, but this looks unlikely as things stand today. 

5 – Atalanta BC (-)

A mirror image of Juventus, Atalanta conceded a last minute goal against Allegri’s team and this leaves the coach and the fans with regrets. A victory against Juventus could give Atalanta a boost for the Champions League race and it was also a signal to the rivals, and it’s an especially bitter pill to swallow given how they dominated the match. 

6 – Lazio (-)

Against Bologna Maurizio Sarri found in Mattia Zaccagni the right player to be a difference maker in a team, that’s been too inconsistent week to week. He scored on both of his shots and had 0.69 expected goals in support of star striker Ciro Immobile’s goal off of five shots and 1.39 xG However, the question around this team remains, can they do it every week?

7 – Fiorentina (+1)

After losing badly at home against Lazio, Vincenzo Italiano’s Fiorentina went back on track by winning at Spezia on Monday night. It was an important result for Fiorentina as they confront life after Vlahovic. What was encouraging is not only Piatek’s first Serie A goal with Fiorentina but the fact that he had five shots and 1.54 xG, a dominant performance from the striker. 

8 – Roma (-1)

The issues at Roma remain the same. Jose Mourinho is still facing the same problem, inconsistency. Against Sassuolo, Roma were needed a stoppage time equalizer from Bryan Cristante to rescue a point despite winning the xG battle 2.58 to 1.19. The stats might be good but if the results don’t follow it will be hard to see this year as a success.

9 – Hellas Verona (+1)

A nice win for Igor Tudor’s team, that won at home against Udinese makes them one of the sides to watch for the next months. Their surprising season has been well earned so far. They sit ninth in the table. They also have the ninth highest xG total in the league. And their xG against total? Also ninth.

10 – Torino (-1)

A disappointing finale to the match against Venezia with Andrea Belotti having goal disallowed by VAR, came at the worst moment for manager Ivan Juric . A huge game against Juventus this weekend can help them change their mood immediately. 

11 – Sassuolo (+1)

Despite drawing against Roma, coach Dionisi was disappointed after the match, because Neroverdi could have taken all three points but for the late goal they conceded. Sassuolo are floating in the middle of the table and this is where they will end up at the end of the season. 

12 – Empoli (+2)

Even if Empoli’s last win was on December 12. against Napoli, Andreazzoli’s team is proving to be a strong and solid team in the last weeks with some key draws against direct rivals and also some missed opportunities to score even more deserved points (since January 1st they have the 11th best xG per match in Serie A). At the same time they definitely need some wins. Their progression in this ranking is due to the bad results of the rivals, such as Bologna. 

13 – Bologna (-2)

Bologna are in a bad place after a strong start to the season. and have failed to win a single game in the new year. During that time by xG they’ve had the third worst defense in the league and the fifth worst attack. Sinisa Mihajlovic needs to change something as soon as possible if he wants to avoid being sacked (and some rumors have already started). 

14 – Sampdoria (+1)

Despite losing at San Siro, Marco Giampaolo’s team looks completely different after the comeback of the former AC Milan coach, who gave to the team a fresh air and new ideas.  Wladimiro Falcone, who took the place of Audero in goal in the starting eleven under Giampaolo had a monster match saving 14 out of 15 shots.

15 – Udinese (-2)

Losing to Hellas Verona 4-0 is a miserable result, a slap in the face for coach Cioffi and the team that now really need to react in the next matches if they want to avoid being dragged into the relegation battle. 

16 – Cagliari (-)

Cagliari are proving more and more to had a change in the mentality after the Christmas break. This team has played like a top half of the table club over the last month and a half. Especially defensively where they’re only conceding a goal per match, and 1.1 xG per match, good for fifth and sixth best in Serie A respectively. This is a team that on current form deserves to stay in Serie A.

17 – Spezia (-)

Losing against Fiorentina was kind of expected, even if Thiago Motta’s team showed a lot of improvements over the last weeks, with three wins in their last five matches. The race to avoid relegation will be a long one, but they have a chance to survive the season. 

18 – Venezia (+1)

Winning against Torino away was a relief since Venezia hadn’t won a single match since last November 21 against Bologna. Almost three months later, Paolo Zanetti can now hope to be back on track, happy that not only does he have a win under his belt again but a difficult part of the schedule is behind him.

19 – Genoa (-1)

Three draws in a row and still no wins under new coach Blessin who is struggling to improve his team despite important January transfer business. Genoa only won one match in the entire Serie A season, . Cagliari on September 12 and that obviously won’t be good enough to get it done if they want to survive. 

20 – Salernitana (-)

After the draw against Genoa and with the club still at the bottom of the table, sporting director Walter Sabatini decided to sack coach Colantuono to appoint former Crotone and Torino manager Davide Nicola, who is considered one of the best when it comes to “miracles” and avoiding relegations. It’s still unlikely that they will make it, but never say never.