Patriots vs. Bills odds, picks, spread, how to watch, live stream: Model makes NFL Wild Card game prediction

With the 2022 NFL playoffs seeing the field expanded from 12 to 14 teams, the likelihood of seeing division rivals facing off during NFL Super Wild Card Weekend has gone up. This season, there will be two matchups between division rivals during the first round of the NFL postseason, including Patriots vs. Bills on Saturday night. These teams have combined to win the last 13 division titles (11 for the Patriots and two for the Bills) and they split their season series, with both teams winning away from home. You can stream the game on Paramount+.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. Caesars Sportsbook lists Buffalo as a five-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 43. Saturday’s matchup can be seen live on CBS and streamed live on Paramount+ with their must-have Premium plan.

Paramount+ now has levels of membership so you can watch your local NFL on CBS matchups and much more. The Premium Plan is $9.99 per month and you can watch your local CBS live stream, including plenty of sports like SEC on CBS, NFL on CBS, and the PGA Tour, with no ads, on demand and the ability to download episodes for offline viewing. Both plans come with a free week to start and include the NFL on CBS, so sign up now here.

How to watch Patriots vs. Bills

• Bills vs. Patriots date: Saturday, Jan. 15
• Bills vs. Patriots time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Bills vs. Patriots TV channel: CBS 
• Bills vs. Patriots live stream: Paramount+

AFC Wild Card picks for Patriots vs. Bills

Before you tune in to Saturday’s Bills vs. Patriots game, you need to see the NFL picks from SportsLine’s advanced computer model. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,400 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters the 2021 NFL playoffs on an incredible 136-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

For Patriots vs. Bills, the model is backing Buffalo (-5) to cover the spread at home. As far as the Bills are concerned, you can throw the last game at Highmark Stadium out the window because of extreme weather conditions. Winds gusted at nearly 40 mph and precipitation made ball security an issue and made throwing the ball extremely difficult.

Weather will be a factor again but the winds are expected to be a lot tamer, meaning Buffalo should be able to attack down the field. And when the weather was less of an issue during the Week 16 matchup in New England, Josh Allen accounted for 378 total yards and three touchdowns while Mac Jones was limited to 14-of-32 for 145 yards while throwing two interceptions.

Bill Belichick will likely have to split the difference between the run-heavy gameplan he used to beat the Bills and the weather in Week 13 and the more typical gameplan that led to a loss in Week 16. But the model predicts that Jones’ struggles continue, as he throws for under 200 yards and throws more interceptions than touchdowns on average, helping the Bills cover in well over 50 percent of simulations.

How to watch, live stream the NFL on CBS

Now that you know what to pick, get ready to watch your live local NFL on CBS games on Paramount+ on any device you want. Visit Paramount+ now to stream your live local CBS sporting events, including the NFL, SEC on CBS, and so much more.