Patriots’ margin for error now razor thin after losing control of the AFC East to Bills

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — You don’t have to look too far back on the calendar to find the Patriots sitting in the most enviable position within the AFC. As they sat back and enjoyed the Week 14 bye, they were the No. 1 seed in the conference and riding a seven-game winning streak that had completely resurrected their season following a 2-4 start to the 2021 campaign. Fast forward just a couple of weeks later, however, and it’s not hyperbole to say that New England has fallen off a cliff. 

Following the bye, the Patriots have since lost two straight, which has not only seen them lose a grasp on the No. 1 seed, but this latest loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 16 now has them on the outside looking in regarding the division race. According to CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh, the Patriots had a 77.5% chance of winning the AFC East. Following this 33-21 loss, however, New England’s odds of securing the division and at least one playoff game at Gillette Stadium fell 46.8% to 30.7%. 

Despite being knotted at 9-6 on the season and even in the head-to-head season series, Buffalo has claim to the top spot in the AFC East thanks to its superior record against division opponents. 

“Wish I knew,” said Patriots safety Devin McCourty when asked what’s changed with the team’s play following the bye. “It’s too late in the season to not play your best football. We’ve got to play better. We need to make a play. We are not making those plays. It hasn’t been good. It’s up to us as a team.”

A commonality in both of these losses post-bye has been slow starts. Against the Colts in Week 15, they were shut out for three quarters as Indy put up 20 points over that stretch. They were able to cut that deficit to as little as three points in the fourth quarter but ultimately couldn’t erase their prior miscues. On Sunday, Buffalo shut them out in the opening quarter and managed just one scoring drive in the first half, which otherwise featured three punts and an interception. 

“You can talk and talk, we have to execute, we have to be better,” said center David Andrews. “That’s really what it comes down to. It really just comes down to execution and we didn’t do a good enough job of that today.”

As things stand, the Patriots are still in a strong position to make the postseason (96.9% in Oh’s projections), but any realistic path toward squeaking back atop the division requires zero margin for error — along with a little luck. 

On top of winning out the rest of the way (vs. Jaguars in Week 17 and at Dolphins in Week 18), the Patriots will need to see Buffalo drop one of its final two games. That will be easier said than done as the Bills have quite the favorable schedule to wrap up the year. They’ll finish up with two home games against the Falcons and Jets, who are both under .500 on the year. 

“It’s our own fault,” Andrews said of the situation New England now finds itself in. “There is no one to blame except for us. That is what it is, can’t change it now, got to get back to work tomorrow.”