Packers vs. Vikings prediction, odds, spread, line: 2022 NFL picks, Week 1 best bets from model on 138-97 run

The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers will kick off the 2022 NFL season with an NFC North showdown on Sunday. The Packers won the division last season at 13-4 behind back-to-back league MVP Aaron Rodgers, while the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings went 8-9 and finished second. Green Bay lost to the San Francisco 49ers 13-10 in the Divisional Round of the playoffs despite not allowing an offensive touchdown. The Vikings failed to win more than two in a row all season and lost two of their final three to miss the playoffs. The home team won and covered the spread in both matchups last season, with the Vikings winning 34-31 in Minneapolis. The Packers won 37-10 at Lambeau in January to eliminate the Vikings from the playoff race, but Cousins missed that game with COVID-19.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET in Minneapolis. Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Packers vs. Vikings odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points scored is 48. Before making any Vikings vs. Packers picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Sunday’s Packers vs. Vikings matchup and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 1 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Vikings vs. Packers:  

• Packers vs. Vikings spread: Green Bay -1.5 
• Packers vs. Vikings Over/Under: 48 points 
• Packers vs. Vikings money line: Green Bay -125, Minnesota +105 
• GB: Packers are 39-10 straight-up (32-17 ATS) in the regular season under Mike LaFleur 
• MIN: Vikings are 13-10-1 ATS in division games since Kirk Cousins arrived in 2018 
• Packers vs. Vikings picks: See picks here

Why the Packers can cover

The Packers are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games against NFC teams, and Rodgers has played very well in his career against the Vikings. The 38-year-old has completed 71% of his passes while averaging 332 passing yards over the past four meetings, throwing 13 TDs and no interceptions. He faces a Minnesota defense that was the NFL’s fifth-worst against the pass in 2021 (253 yards per game). The quarterback also has been excellent in season-openers, going 10-4 straight-up, although Green Bay lost to New Orleans 38-3 to start the 2021 season. 

Rodgers threw for 4,115 yards, with 17 TDs and just four interceptions last season. He is the only NFL quarterback to surpass 500 attempts with four or fewer interceptions, and he has done it three times. He will be without receiver Davante Adams, who was traded, but Aaron Jones has stepped up with Adams out. The running back averaged 112 total yards and scored 10 TDs in the seven games without Adams since 2019, and Green Bay went 7-0 SU. The Packers were ninth in total defense (328 yards per game), while the Vikings ranked 30th (384) last season.   

Why the Vikings can cover

Minnesota has won four of its past six home meetings against the Packers. Rodgers is 16-10-1 against the Vikings, his most losses against any team, and seven of those 10 have come in Minneapolis. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the Vikings had hard luck last season. They were in 14 one-possession games, the most in NFL history, and lost two games in overtime and two more by two points or fewer. Cousins threw for 4,221 yards and 33 TDs, with seven interceptions, in 2021, and he has plenty of weapons around him to do damage.

The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on FieldTurf, and receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and running back Dalvin Cook are all healthy. Jefferson had 1,606 yards on 108 catches, Thielen had 67 catches in 13 games, and both scored 10 touchdowns. Cook averaged 4.7 yards per carry, gaining 1,159 yards in 13 games. The defense struggled against the pass, but the addition of Za’Darius Smith should help rattle opposing QBs. He had 26 sacks in two seasons with Green Bay before playing just 18 snaps last year because of a back injury.

How to make Packers vs. Vikings picks

The model has broken down Sunday’s matchup from every angle, and it is leaning Over on the point total, with the model suggesting the quarterbacks will combine for close to 500 yards. It also says that one side of the spread is hitting well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Vikings vs. Packers on Sunday? And which side of the spread is hitting well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Vikings spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 138-97 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.