NFL Week 14 picks, odds: Rams best Cardinals in primetime, 49ers outlast Bengals in high-scoring affair

This playoff race is shaping up to be ridiculous. The most boring portion of the race is the top part of the NFC, where it looks like we have five teams basically locked into those spots. But the different ways those five teams (or even four if the Rams slip some more) can shift around is pretty wild (if the Rams don’t slip this week). 

Arizona can clinch a berth this week with a win or a MIN + SF loss, but there’s still so many different ways the NFC can slide up top. On the bottom, there’s no telling who clinches a playoff berth. None of those teams have shown an ability to rip off a ton of wins in a row without a bad slip-up. The No. 6 seed and the No. 15 seed are separated by two games.

On the AFC side of things, it’s even weirder. The Patriots somehow ascended to the No. 1 seed, as we all expected! At 9-4 they’re an entire two games clear of the No. 9 seed Colts. 

There’s so much to be decided in one of the wildest playoff races we’ve seen in some time.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 14 Picks

Steelers at Vikings

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: Fox/NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

For the first time in 34 games, Ben Roethlisberger will enter a game as an underdog against a team with a record below .500. That active streak was second only to Tom Brady (55) and 11 clear of Aaron Rodgers. But the Vikings are no ordinary 5-7 team — they’ve found a way to keep 11 of their 12 games within a single possession. Six of those 12 games have been decided on the final play. “Ventricular Vikings” doesn’t hit as well as “Cardiac Cats,” but these guys are due for a nickname after this absurd season. Minnesota’s probably the better team despite the record, as it got the Lions‘ best effort and the Steelers put everything into taking down the Ravens in a must-win game. Mike Zimmer’s got some pretty good results against Roethlisberger offenses. I think we get the best effort from the Vikes and, naturally, a narrow win.

The pick: Vikings 24, Steelers 20

Props, Best Bets: Vikings -3

Ravens at Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Fun fact: the Ravens and Browns have the exact same number of rush yards this year, 1,765, tied for third-most in the league. They are also tied in first place for the toughest remaining schedules of any NFL teams, making this division matchup crucial for seeding in the AFC. Or simply making the playoffs in Cleveland’s case. Lamar Jackson is 5-1 in his career against the Browns, covering four straight games, and 8-1 in his career as an underdog. But there are reasons to be concerned with Baltimore, such as the Ravens averaging 18.7 points over the past four games. Lamar’s completing 63% of his passes and has six touchdowns to eight interceptions. Baker Mayfield certainly has his own problems, but I’ll take the home team coming off the bye over the struggling offense that just lost Marlon Humphrey for the season. Feels like a big Nick Chubb game. 

The pick: Browns 24, Ravens 17

Props, Best Bets: Browns -2.5

Jaguars at Titans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Looking at this spread, my initial thought was “that’s too much for the Titans without Derrick Henry.” But then I went back and peaked at Mike Vrabel’s post-bye record, and I was pretty surprised about how good he’s been. Vrabel is undefeated straight up and ATS coming off the bye, with outright wins as an underdog over the 2018 Cowboys (10-6) and 2020 Bills (13-3). His other win was a 22-point beatdown of the Jaguars in 2019. None of that necessarily matters with how badly the Titans are banged up, but they’re at least getting Julio Jones back against a terrible Jacksonville secondary. Julio should be willing to pay off that trade in one fell swoop. With A.J. Brown set to return in Week 15, this offense could start picking back up. Jacksonville is winless on the road and has been blown out in most of those games. The Jags are also on a four-game losing streak with questions mounting once again about Urban Meyer’s in-game management. 

The Pick: Titans 35, Jaguars 14

Props, Best Bets: Titans -8.5, Titans -2.5 teaser leg

Raiders at Chiefs

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)    

Chiefs are going to be chalky as heck here and with good reason. These teams are trending in opposite directions. The Chiefs are on a five-game winning streak during which they’ve given up a total of 56 points. K.C.’s defense is the best on third down in the NFL (26%) over its last five games. The Raiders offense, meanwhile, is the NFL’s worst (22%) on third down over the last five games. The Raiders are 1-4 since their bye and are averaging just 18.8 points per game in that span, down from 25.7 before their break. Weather looks pretty good in K.C. on Sunday so this over could be a look — it’s depressed to 48.5 with the Raiders offensive trend, but we’ve seen the over hit in this matchup the last three meetings. I’ll probably hold off because the loss of Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs III pretty clearly had an adverse effect on the Las Vegas offense. 

The Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 17

Props, Best Bets: Pass

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Falcons at Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Neither of these teams are good, and yet both are “in the hunt” in the NFC playoff race! And there’s nothing to like about a Panthers team without Christian McCaffrey fresh off firing its offensive coordinator in Joe Brady. The Falcons are a good time to get right if you’re a new OC, because Atlanta’s defense ranks dead last in both pressure percentage and sacks this season. Their -116 point differential is the worst by a 5-7 NFL team since the 2013 Jets and fourth-worst in the NFL this season. Detroit has a better point differential than Atlanta. That’s not good. The more I look at this game, the more I really like the under. The under has hit in Atlanta’s last four games, and Matt Rhule made it clear he wants to run the ball aggressively in post-Brady life. Cam Newton rushing overs might be worth a look here.

The Pick: Panthers 17, Falcons 14

Props, Best Bets: Under 42.5, Cam rush yards over

Cowboys at Washington

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here) 

WFT is starting to feel itself on defense, as Ron Rivera’s team hasn’t allowed more than 24 points since Week 6 after a horrendous start to the year. Now it gets its biggest test of the season with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys getting healthy at just the right time. Prescott destroys NFC East opponents, going 21-6 (19-7-1 ATS) against them in his career. He’s 7-1 against WFT (6-2 ATS) with 17 touchdowns and just one interception. Dak is also tied with Patrick Mahomes for the best record (10-2) when on extended rest. Jerry Jones always makes sure he gets a favorable schedule out of his annual Thanksgiving party in Dallas. Rivera was 2-0 against the Cowboys last year, but neither game featured Dak. The Prescott numbers scare me, but I’m going to take WFT to find a way to win this one outright. 

The Pick: WFT 28, Cowboys 27

Props, Best Bets: WFT +4

Seahawks at Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

There’s reason to believe the Seahawks may have turned a corner in their longshot playoff push after Russell Wilson‘s performance last week. They probably need to run the table, but Russ cranking up his completion percentage from 56% the previous three weeks returning from injury to 81% against San Francisco last week is a great sign. Having said all that, I still don’t trust Pete Carroll to cut Russ loose here, not with a game featuring a total of 41.5. The Texans are scoring 13.7 points per game this year, by far the fewest in the NFL and on track to be the lowest since the 2012 Chiefs (13.2). Seattle loves a good grinder, so I don’t see them just throwing deep bombs all over the field. The Seahawks probably let the Texans sneak through the backdoor without much on defense.

The Pick: Seahawks 21, Texans 14

Props, Best Bets: Pass

Saints at Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here) 

This game is on CBS, so I’m contractually obligated to tell you how great it will be. The under looks appealing, but the Jets give up more points than anyone in football (30.6) and have given up 30+ points in five of their last seven games. The Saints aren’t a monster on offense, but Alvin Kamara is back for this game and Taysom Hill will fight through a banged-up finger. New Orleans hasn’t won since Jameis Winston went down on Halloween. It went 0-fer in November and needs a W bad here. Their defense should be able to give Zach Wilson fits, but I wouldn’t want to bank on the Saints just strolling away with a victory in the Meadowlands. I think they get one, but it’s closer than the 5.5 points the Jets are getting, especially with the Saints incentivized to run the ball a ton. No, I don’t feel good about this.

The Pick: Saints 21, Jets 17

Props, Best Bets: Under 43

Bills at Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

What a game we’ve got for you on CBS on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are coming off a disappointing Monday night loss to the Patriots with super weird weather, and people will question how they can recover from a morale standpoint against the NFL’s best passing offense and Tom Brady, who is basically Buffalo’s Thanos, holding a 32-3 (!) career record against the Bills. Buffalo’s pass defense is still the top-ranked unit, but it will be without Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White the rest of the season because of injury. Tom Brady’s longest career win streak against one opponent is 13 against the Bills. His fifth-longest career win streak against one opponent is nine … against the Bills … and he’s currently on it. Obviously those are Pats wins for him, but how can anyone from Buffalo not get a little nervous with Brady across the field. The Bucs secondary is questionable enough for the Bills to find plenty of passing success, and Cole Beasley should eat against the Bucs’ heavy zone coverage. I think Allen and Co. can bounce back and cover and maaaaybe steal a win.

The Pick: Bucs 31, Bills 30

Props, Best Bets: Bills +3.5

Lions at Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Despite their lousy 1-10-1 record this season, the Lions are actually 8-4 against the spread. Have they been good? No, but at times they’ve been GREAT. The Lions’ emotional response is basically everything in this game. Do they breathe a sigh of relief over their win and just come into Denver happy to get that first W? I think Dan Campbell keeps these guys inspired and believing they can get on a win streak. It might not be likely with Javonte Williams (take his over rush yards and receptions) and the Lions on the road versus at home with their pathologically loyal crowd behind them. But they’ll keep it close enough versus a conservative Broncos team to keep their five-game cover streak alive. The Lions have gone under the total in five straight road games, while the Broncos are on a six-game under streak and 10-2 on the season to the under. Denver is the only team with a sub-40 point cumulative scoring number (its points scored plus opponents’ points scored) in the NFL.

The Pick: Broncos 20, Lions 14

Props, Best Bets: Under 42, Javonte Williams over rush yards, over receptions

Giants at Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Chargers defense has been terrible this year, clocking in at 27th in points allowed and owning the worst third-down conversion rate and the worst rush defense in all of football. Does it matter against this Giants team? New York is likely giving Jake Fromm his first start and hasn’t been exactly explosive on offense in the last few weeks. Joe Judge is going to pound the ball even more knowing the Chargers are bad against the run. With Keenan Allen out and Mike Williams a maybe with Covid situations, we could see a ton of Austin Ekeler, too. The Giants 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. I don’t really see that changing here as long as the Chargers aren’t missing all their receivers. Joe Lombardi started to open things up last week against the Bengals, which makes sense considering not unleashing Justin Herbert every week is just foolish.

The Pick: Chargers 35, Giants 17

Props, Best Bets: Chargers -10

49ers at Bengals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here) 

If I told you Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Burrow were No. 2 and No. 3 in yards per pass attempt would you believe me? I don’t even really believe me. But it’s true! The total here is a pretty robust 48.5, but with the way the Bengals have been running, it wouldn’t be crazy to see this in the 50’s. Cincy’s opened things up the last six weeks, scoring over 30 points per game in that stretch. But the defense has taken a step back, too, allowing 26 points after giving up fewer than 19 in its first six games. Deebo Samuel would need to be active for me to play this over — having him in the backfield elevates that offense in San Francisco to a new level. The 49ers suffered a fluky loss to Seattle last week, but I think they bounce back here (again, with a healthy Samuel) in a potential shootout. 

The Pick: 49ers 35, Bengals 31

Props, Best Bets: 49ers +1.5

Bears at Packers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)    

Aaron Rodgers played a game earlier this year in Chicago and beat the Bears so badly he screamed “I own you” to fans giving him the middle finger after he rushed in for a touchdown. He’s not wrong! And yet people asked him about it this week, meaning he just got a free chip on his shoulder by getting mad at the media for questioning his ability to beat the Bears. And he’s playing at home, in prime time (while on a 9-1 ATS prime-time streak)? This is the first time the Packers have been double-digit favorites against the Bears since 2013, but you can’t possibly talk me into taking Chicago, especially not when Rodgers is one game shy of tying Bart Starr for most wins all-time versus the Bears.

The Pick: Packers 35, Bears 14

Props, Best Bets: Packers TT over, Rodgers anytime TD, Rodgers over pass TD

Rams at Cardinals

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

The Rams got clobbered by the Cardinals when these teams played earlier in the year. And they had been struggling over the past few weeks before finally getting off their multi-game skid with a dominating win over the Jaguars. It hardly means anything, but it’s a confidence builder going into Monday night against the white-hot Cardinals. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins came back against Chicago and looked JUST FINE. Murray was unbelievable, picking up where he left off. I still like the Rams to keep this really close and find a way to steal a win and make things very snug in the NFC West.

The Pick: Rams 31, Cardinals 28

Props, Best Bets: Rams +2.5