NFL conference championship picks: Chiefs continue rolling vs. Bengals, 49ers come up just short against Rams

One of the more remarkable streaks in NFL history came to an end last season when Tampa Bay reached the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers became the first NFL team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium, and it only took 55 Super Bowls for it to happen. Granted, the Super Bowl has only been played in certain locations — usually warm weather — and not all of them — the Rose Bowl — serve as home stadiums for NFL teams, but it was still rather remarkable that it took so long for it to happen.

And now, it might happen two years in a row. The Rams are a win away from playing the Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium. After having to wait over half a century for it to happen once, it could happen in consecutive seasons. So, while it might feel counterintuitive if you’re an Arizona Cardinals fan, you might consider rooting for the Rams on Sunday to keep the streak alive. After all, Super Bowl LVII will be played at your place.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Bengals at Chiefs: Chiefs -7 (-110)

Cincinnati, you’re a wonderful story, and I appreciate you pulling through and making me look smart last week. Sure, I only had you covering, but all the reasons I wrote about why I took you to cover were evident in your victory. Unfortunately, while you could get past Tennessee even as Joe Burrow was beaten into oblivion, that same approach isn’t going to work against Kansas City. The fact is that Cincinnati’s offense did not play well against Tennessee, but it didn’t matter because Tennessee was even worse.

That won’t work against a Kansas City team that nobody can stop. I’m still feeling some of the adrenaline from that Chiefs/Bills game last week, and I can’t shake the feeling that the game was the de facto AFC Championship. Even if Tennessee had gotten past the Bengals to host this game, I don’t think my feeling would change. Kansas City is simply too good of a team. Early in the year, we wondered if the Chiefs had lost their way, but in retrospect, we were just watching a team with an entirely brand new offensive line figure things out.

Once it all clicked up front, the Chiefs went back to juggernaut mode, and that juggernaut will be too much for the Bengals to handle. Yes, Cincinnati will score more points this weekend than last, but it won’t be nearly enough.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bengals 21

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49ers at Rams: 49ers +3.5 (-115)

I can’t go against the 49ers in this matchup. There’s far too much history that says this is the right side to be on. San Francisco has won six straight against the Rams, as Kyle Shanahan seems to have his old friend Sean McVay’s number. There are also the trends surrounding the 49ers as underdogs under Shanahan that I went over last week but will reiterate now that they’ve improved once again. After last week’s win, the Niners are now 26-17 ATS as underdogs and 18-10 as road dogs.

While the trends are fun, there are football reasons for this pick, too. I don’t think the 49ers are a great matchup for the Rams for a few reasons. One is that the 49ers have a strong enough offensive line to at least slow down the Rams’ push up front. The other is that Jalen Ramsey isn’t as effective against the 49ers because San Francisco has so many options.

Let’s look at this postseason. The Rams completely shut down the Cardinals offense because Arizona’s offense is basically a one-read offense, and the Rams had Ramsey moving around and covering that first read. That forced Kyler Murray to improvise a lot, and it worked against Arizona (as did not having DeAndre Hopkins for all the obvious reasons). Last week against Tampa, Ramsey shadowed Mike Evans most of the afternoon to limit him, and the Bucs were without Chris Godwin (torn ACL) and Antonio Brown (torn ego). That didn’t leave Tom Brady with many great options to throw to, and it put the Bucs in a big hole early.

The 49ers offense has options. If the Rams use Ramsey to eliminate Deebo Samuel — which won’t be easy, seeing as how he can line up anywhere — there’s still George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. In other words, no matter what the Rams do defensively, San Francisco can counter. And that’s why I like their odds of covering at a minimum.

Prediction: Rams 23, 49ers 21