Heat vs. Magic odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, Dec. 17 prediction, best bets from model on 44-20 run

The Orlando Magic aim to stop a six-game losing streak when they host the Miami Heat on Friday. The teams square off in a Southeast Division battle, with Orlando entering at 5-24 and Miami bringing a 17-12 record into the game. Both teams are facing significant personnel challenges. Cole Anthony (ankle), Mo Bamba (ankle) and Gary Harris (hamstring) are listed as questionable for the Magic, with Jalen Suggs (thumb), Markelle Fultz (knee) and Jonathan Isaac (knee) ruled out. Jimmy Butler (tailbone), Bam Adebayo (thumb) and Markieff Morris (neck) are out for the Heat, with Tyler Herro (quad) listed as questionable.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Orlando. Miami is listed as a 4.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 208 in the latest Heat vs. Magic odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before locking in any Magic vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 44-20 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Magic and just locked in its NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Magic vs. Heat:

• Heat vs. Magic spread: Heat -4.5
• Heat vs. Magic over-under: 208 points
• Heat vs. Magic money line: Heat -210, Magic +175
• MIA: The Heat are 9-8 against the spread in road games
• ORL: The Magic are 3-8 against the spread in home games

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s defense is operating at a high level, allowing only 1.07 points per possession for the season. Opponents are shooting less than 44 percent against the Heat, with Miami ranking in the top 10 in the NBA in defensive rebound rate (73.7 percent), assists allowed (23.0 per game) and turnovers created (15.7 per game). The Heat lead the NBA in points allowed in the paint (39.5 per game), and Orlando is No. 28 in the NBA in offensive rating and shooting efficiency. 

Offensively, Miami also has a favorable matchup against an Orlando team that ranks second-worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat are making 12.8 3-pointers per game and shooting 36.2 percent from long distance, both of which are top-10 figures, and Miami is in the top eight of the league in free-throw accuracy (79.8 percent), offensive rebound rate (28.5 percent), assist percentage (64.4 percent) and assists per game (25.2).

Why the Magic can cover

The Magic are struggling this season, but Miami isn’t at full strength and the Heat have some notable weaknesses. Miami is below-average in free-throw attempts, 3-pointers and turnovers on offense, with struggling marks in free-throw prevention and blocked shots on defense. Orlando is above-average on the offensive glass, securing 27.2 percent of rebound opportunities, and the Magic are connecting on 12.2 3-pointers per game. 

The Magic are very good at keeping opponents away from the free-throw line, and Orlando is excellent in transition, allowing only 11.1 fast-break points per game. Finally, the Magic are No. 6 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint (43.2 per game), and they can force the Heat to beat them from the perimeter.

How to make Magic vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total as the teams combine for 207 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Magic? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.