Corner Picks: Champions League odds, best bets, predictions for Villarreal-Liverpool, Real Madrid-Man City

It’s the final week of Champions League semifinals (catch all the action on CBS Sports and Paramount+), so I am running out of time to get out of the hole with my Champions League picks. While Corner Picks has been profitable on the season, these Champions League matches have done everything in their power to change that.

Which, when you think about it, is an indicator of how exciting this year’s Champions League has been. While it looks like we’re going to end up with a final comprised of two teams most people expected to be there, the path has included plenty of twists and turns we didn’t see coming. Really, there isn’t much more we can ask of the competition.

That said, I wouldn’t mind increasing those profits. Winning money is fun too. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Villarreal vs. Liverpool

Date: Tuesday, May 3 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

I took both teams to score in the first leg last week, and it backfired. Villarreal went ultra-defensive on the road against Liverpool, barely registering a pulse in attack as Liverpool won 2-0. They cannot approach this match the same way and will come out aggressively against a dangerous Liverpool side.

And Liverpool are not the kind of team that will be comfortable sitting back and nursing a 2-0 lead. They will try to make it 3-0 or even 4-0 before taking their foot off the gas. Whether it’s a blowout or not, though, Villarreal should find the back of the net often enough to justify paying this price. They’ve scored in 19 of their 22 home matches this season and didn’t get this far in the Champions League by playing ultra-defensively. Pick: Both Teams To Score (-155)

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Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

Date: Wednesday, May 4 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS/Paramount+

When picking this match, it’s important not to stare directly at the photo of Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti in sunglasses, smoking a cigar with Real Madrid players while celebrating their La Liga title, because he is simply too cool in the photo, and it could cause you to put way too much money on Real Madrid to win this match. Don’t get me wrong, Real Madrid can win this match; you just shouldn’t bet on it.

Instead, we’re going to go against the grain a bit. In last week’s match, we were on Manchester City Over 1.5 goals and quickly felt stupid, as City needed only 11 minutes to score twice. A lot more goals would come as City held on for a thrilling 4-3 win. A 4-3 win that has raised expectations for how many goals we’ll see scored in the second leg. As fun as that match was, I’m not expecting a repeat performance, nor should you be. So while everybody else seems to be jumping on the over (it went from 2.5 last week to 3.5 this week), we should go under. With a margin of one goal, and this being the second leg, don’t be shocked if both teams are slightly more conservative. Pick: Under 3.5 (-160)