Champions League Corner Picks: Best bets, predictions, odds for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea, Bayern vs. Villarreal

Betting on sports is a perpetual battle between entertainment and personal pride. The first legs of the quarterfinals last week were not only entertaining but surprising. If you read my picks, you know that I didn’t see a 3-1 Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge coming, and there weren’t many people on the planet who had Villarreal beating Bayern Munich 1-0. Beating them, maybe, but keeping a clean sheet? Against Bayern Munich? It might be the most impressive thing humans have done since landing on the moon.

However, as I alluded to, the entertainment didn’t go well for me. I went 1-3 in my picks, and now I’m torn between wanting this week’s matches to be just as entertaining and full of surprises or wanting my picks to be correct. I’ll settle for 2-2!

Anyway, like the struggle between entertainment and pride is eternal, so are the odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

Date: Tuesday, April 12 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+/CBS

Think back to Real Madrid’s first match against PSG in the round of 16, Madrid surprised me (again) by coming out ultra-defensively, essentially playing a style similar to what Atletico Madrid did against Manchester City last week. Instead of scoring a hat trick like he did in the second leg and last week against Chelsea, Karim Benzema was the loneliest man on the field, as all his teammates sank into a low block, hoping to keep PSG from scoring. It almost worked, but PSG scored late to win 1-0, while Real Madrid finished with 0.1 expected goals (xG).

Now that Real Madrid are returning home for the second leg with a 3-1 lead don’t be surprised if we see a similar approach. It might go against the spirit of competition or playing the game “the right way,” but it’s the smarter approach here. Especially when you consider Madrid will be without Eder Militao. Chelsea are a team at its best when countering and catching a defense out of shape. While they’re good enough to break down a low block, they aren’t nearly as efficient, and that’s what Carlo Ancellotti is likely to force them to do. Maybe you’ll score once, and maybe twice, but three times? This should be a turgid affair. Pick: Under 2.5 (-105)

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Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal

Date: Tuesday, April 12 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

As I said up top, Villarreal keeping a clean sheet against Bayern last week is one of the most impressive things I’ve seen in a while. It ended a streak of 24 straight matches with at least one goal for Bayern (the last shutout was a 5-0 loss to Monchengladbach in the DFB Pokal) and a streak of 30 (!) straight Champions League matches with at least one goal. Seriously, Villarreal became the first team to shut out Bayern in the Champions League since Liverpool in 2019.

And I don’t expect it to happen again. Bayern didn’t score in the match, but they had chances. They finished with an xG of 1.2, and while I suppose there could be some reason for concern, seeing that Bayern only beat Augsburg 1-0 over the weekend, I’m banking on it all meaning we’re due for an offensive explosion Tuesday. Pick: Bayern Munich Over 2.5 (-115)

Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester City

Date: Wednesday, April 13 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

I knew pretty quickly that my Both Teams to Score play would be a dud in the first meeting. While I expected Atletico to come out in a low block, I didn’t expect what was essentially a 5-5-0 formation. I thought Madrid would at least give themselves the option of a counterattack, but while they had a few attempts, expecting João Felix or Antoine Griezmann to sprint three-quarters of the field and then still have the ability to score a goal was far too much to ask. Still, if you were to ask Diego Simeone if he was pleased with the result, you’d get a positive answer. Being down only 1-0 to Manchester City for the return leg at home is the best you could hope for.

Madrid are likely to play a similar style in the second match, but this time it will leave players up top for the counter, and this is a style of play Madrid has perfected over the years. I don’t necessarily believe Atletico will shock the world on Wednesday and knock City out of the Champions League, but they’re more capable of getting some kind of result after 90 minutes than these odds suggest. Pick: Atletico Madrid or Draw (+103)

Liverpool vs. Benfica

Date: Wednesday, April 13 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+/CBS

There wasn’t much about the first match that the final score didn’t tell you. Liverpool won 3-1 and deserved to. Now they return home with a commanding lead against a team nobody is giving much of a chance to pull off the miracle, nor should they. Benfica have the weakest defense remaining in the tournament, and Liverpool should be able to control the match yet again.

But I’m playing the context a bit here. Liverpool had a chance to take control of the Premier League on Sunday if they beat Man City, but the 2-2 draw they managed likely won’t be enough. Well, Liverpool’s next match after this one is again against Manchester City in an FA Cup semifinal. Don’t be surprised if Liverpool score early here to take a 4-1 lead on aggregate and then slows things down to prepare for City again. Pick: Under 3.5 (-125)

Tuesday’s broadcast schedule

• UEFA Champions League Today, 2 p.m. ET, CBS and Paramount+
• Real Madrid vs. Chelsea 3 p.m. ET, CBS and Paramount+
• Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+
• UEFA Champions League Post-Match Show, 5 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network and Paramount+

Wednesday’s broadcast schedule

• UEFA Champions League Today, 2 p.m. ET, CBS and Paramount+
• Liverpool vs. Benfica, 3 p.m. ET, CBS and Paramount+
• Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester City, 3 p.m. ET, Paramount+
• UEFA Champions League Post-Match Show, 5 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network and Paramount+