Betting Brady – props and picks for the big Sunday night football game

Future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady makes his return to Foxborough to face his former team, the New England Patriots, on Sunday Night Football. Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay was one of the best statistical seasons of his career after many questioned his ability to continue to perform at a high level. Brady spent his first 20 seasons with the Patriots throwing for a staggering 74,571 yards and 541 TDs and, of course, won six Super Bowl rings with the franchise.

However, Brady didn’t miss a beat in Tampa Bay. He threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns last season and propelled the Buccaneers to their first Super Bowl win since the 2002 season. Brady’s already amassed 1,087 passing yards and 10 touchdowns this season and is on the precipice of history. He is only 68 yards away from passing Drew Brees (80,358) as the all-time leading passer in NFL history. The next highest active players on the all-time list are Ben Roethlisberger (61,149), Matt Ryan (56,474), and Aaron Rodgers (51,894). Is it poetic justice that Brady will have a chance to achieve yet another career milestone at Gillette Stadium?

This matchup between the Buccaneers and Patriots is so huge, we have special props on it from Caesars Sportsbook. Let’s take a look at one bet and three props you should consider.

Tom Brady O/U 304.5 passing yards

The Buccaneers’ offensive line has done an exceptional job of protecting Brady. This unit has one of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL. This trend should continue against the Patriots’ defensive front. Brady has averaged 300.2 passing yards per game in his 19 regular-season games with the Buccaneers. He’s surpassed 304.5 passing yards in nine of them. The Patriots’ (159.7) defense has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game to opponents, but it’s difficult to bet against Brady when taking into account the bevy of weapons he has to choose from. No active NFL quarterback can pick apart a defense quite like him. I believe Brady exceeds this prop.

Pick: Over 304.5

Quarter of record-breaking pass (1st quarter -240, 2nd +200, 3rd +2000, 4th +3500)

Brady is likely to throw the record-breaking pass in the first quarter, hence the big number here. He’s averaged 68.5 passing yards in the first quarter this season. In addition to tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, he’ll also have Antonio Brown back for this game. Brown missed last week’s game against the Rams after testing positive for COVID-19. From 2010-2020 Brady has averaged 8.38 pass attempts, 62.8 passing yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game in the 1st quarter of regular-season games. It would not be shocking for Brady to exceed these per game averages on Sunday night. I like his chances of completing the record-breaking pass in the 1st quarter, although you do have to lay -240 to get this.

Pick: 1st quarter (-240)

Rob Gronkowski O/U 3.5 receptions

Gronk suffered a rib injury in Week 3 against the Rams, but his X-rays came back negative. Our very own NFL Insider, Adam Schefter, reported that he “looks likely” to play against the Patriots. Gronkowski and Brady’s regular-season and post-season exploits are well documented. The dynamic tight end has averaged 3.2 receptions per game in the regular season since 2020. The Patriots linebackers and safeties will have trouble containing him. Brady will look Gronkowski’s way early and often. I’d take the over here.

Pick: Over 3.5 receptions

Mike Evans O/U 56.5 receiving yards

Evans has averaged 7.1 targets, 4.5 receptions, and 63.7 receiving yards per game in 19 active regular-season games since Brady has arrived in Tampa Bay. He’s exceeded 56.5 receiving yards in two out of three games this season. I expect Godwin to be matched up against Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones. It’s possible that Bill Belichick uses a double team on him. Evans and Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson could see a lot of each other. This is a good matchup for the veteran receiver. My recommendation is to take the over on this prop.

Pick: Over 56.5 receiving yards

The Game

Once the 2021 NFL schedule was announced, this was the game we circled and have anxiously waited for. Brady heads into Foxborough against Belichick as a 6.5 point favorite and rightfully so. The Buccaneers offense ranks in the top 10 in both yards gained and points scored. On the other hand, Tampa Bay’s defense ranks in the bottom 10 in both categories. It’s worth mentioning that the Buccaneers faced two strong offenses in the Cowboys and Rams. Tampa Bay’s secondary should have more success against Mac Jones. The Patriots have faced the Dolphins, Jets, and Saints so far this season and now face a daunting task trying to slow down the Buccaneers’ offense.

In reality, this should be the Buccaneers’ game to lose. Tampa Bay has had success against two potential playoff teams. For now, the Patriots have not faced a viable opponent. It will be interesting to see how defensive guru Belichick will gameplan to stop Brady.

The total for this non-conference matchup has stayed steady at 49 points. The betting trends favor the Patriots. New England is 5-1 straight up in its last six games as a home underdog. While the Buccaneers are 1-4 straight up in their last five Sunday night games. This is a scenario that needs to be thrown out of the window. Brady’s extraordinary competitiveness knows no bounds. My money is on the GOAT and the Buccaneers.

Pick: Bucs -6.5