2022 Super Bowl odds, Bengals vs. Rams prop bets: Proven NFL model picks over 1.5 touchdowns for Joe Burrow

When scanning attractive NFL player prop bets, sometimes the deciding factor has less to do with the player, and more to do with the defense he’s up against. The quarterbacks in the 2022 Super Bowl, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Los Angeles’ Matthew Stafford, both have similar passing yard over-under totals in the latest Super Bowl 56 player props on Caesars Sportsbook. Against the best quarterback that the Rams have faced in the playoffs, Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady threw for 308 yards, while the Bengals held Patrick Mahomes to just 236 in the AFC Championship Game.

Stafford’s over-under checks in at 279.5 yards, and Burrow’s is just four yards behind at 275.5. How much should recent defensive performances impact your decisions when it comes to making the right choices on Rams vs. Bengals prop bets? Before making any Super Bowl 56 prop picks, be sure to see the top Joe Burrow props from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Super Bowl 2022 on an incredible 137-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a top-rated pick since Week 14 of the regular season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

It can also be used to crush prop picks. Last season, the player over-under prop picks went 389-310, returning over $3,000.

With Super Bowl 2022 scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 13, the model has evaluated the latest Joe Burrow props from Caesars Sportsbook and revealed its best bets. 

Top Joe Burrow prop picks for Rams vs. Bengals

One of the 2022 Super Bowl bets the model recommends: Burrow goes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-160). The pick goes against the grain of what the Rams have shown so far this postseason when it comes to their pass defense. The only player that has thrown for two touchdowns against Los Angeles in the playoffs this year was San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who had the advantage of seeing the Rams twice before in the regular season.

The Bengals run three-wide receiver sets at the highest rate in the NFL, at 77 percent. The only other teams that Los Angeles has faced to do so at a rate of 65 percent-or-higher were Tampa Bay and Seattle, who each played the Rams twice. In Los Angeles’ first games against the Bucs and Seahawks, Brady and the Russell Wilson and Geno Smith tandem each tossed two touchdown passes. 

The SportsLine model projects Burrow throws an average of 1.7 touchdown passes in all simulations, making him a strong bet to go over the 1.5-touchdown total on Sunday.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl prop bets for Bengals vs. Rams

In addition, the model is high on a Burrow prop bet that has a plus-money payout. You need to see the model’s top Super Bowl prop bets before making any Rams vs. Bengals picks.

Which Joe Burrow prop has a plus-money payout? And what other Burrow prop bets does the model love for Super Bowl 56? Visit SportsLine now to see the top Super Bowl 56 prop bets, all from the model that’s up over $7,500 on top-rated NFL picks.