2022 Stanley Cup Final: Lightning vs. Avalanche odds, NHL picks, Game 6 prediction from proven hockey model

After a late third-period goal from Ondrej Palat gave the Tampa Bay Lightning a 3-2 victory in Game 5 on Friday, the 2022 Stanley Cup Final will head back to Tampa Bay for Game 6 on Sunday night. The Avalanche lead the series 3-2, but the Lightning have already overcome two series deficits in the 2022 NHL Playoffs, and Colorado will be hard-pressed to close out the defending champions in their own building. However, Colorado has dominated the run of play throughout the series, outshooting Tampa Bay 181-140 for the series and even winning the shots battle 37-29 in the Game 5 loss.

Colorado is a -115 favorite (risk $115 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Lightning vs. Avalanche odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is a -105 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is six. The opening faceoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay. Before making any Avalanche vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

• Lightning vs. Avalanche money line: Avalanche -115, Lightning -105
• Lightning vs. Avalanche over-under: 6 goals
• Lightning vs. Avalanche puck line: Avalanche -1.5 (+205)
• Lightning vs. Avalanche tickets: See tickets at StubHub
• TB: The total has gone under in 12 of Tampa Bay’s last 16 games
• COL: The Avalanche have won eight of their last nine road games

Why the Avalanche can win

The model knows Colorado has still been the more dominant team despite coming off a loss in Game 5. The Avalanche have outshot the Lightning 181-140 over the first five games of the series and even outshot the Lightning 37-29 on Friday in the 3-2 loss. The Avalanche have had a decided power-play advantage throughout the series, with the exception of Game 5, and they’ll look to lean hard on their dynamic power-play units again in Game 6 to close out the series.

Cale Makar continues to be a major catalyst in Colorado’s overall success this season as the 23-year-old defenseman had 28 goals and 58 assists for an 86-point season and has backed that up with eight goals and 21 assists in 19 postseason games. Makar has spearheaded that elite power-play unit as he runs the point along with dynamic forwards Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog.

Why the Lightning can win

The model also knows Tampa Bay has shown impressive fight despite being behind at every stage in the series and have overcome a 3-2 deficit already this postseason. The Lightning came from behind to win their first-round series against the Maple Leafs and also faced a 2-0 series deficit to the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Finals before winning the last four games to advance.

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have shown plenty of resilience and an experienced group is a big reason why. Captain Steven Stamkos has 10 goals and eight assists in 22 postseason games while Nikita Kucherov’s 27 points so far in the playoffs leads the team. Veterans Victor Hedman (19 points), Palat (20 points) and Corey Perry (11 points) have also made major contributions.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 6.5 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.