2022 Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, NHL picks, Game 3 prediction from proven hockey model

The Tampa Bay Lightning face a desperate situation on Monday evening. The Lightning trail the Colorado Avalanche by a 2-0 margin in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final. Things cratered for Tampa Bay in a 7-0 Game 2 loss, though the Lightning return home to seek an uptick in performance. Colorado looks to steal a road game at Amalie Arena and take an even more commanding series lead with a victory. 

Opening face-off is at 8 p.m. ET in Tampa. Both teams are listed at -110 (risk $110 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It entered the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

• Avalanche vs. Lightning money line: Colorado -110, Tampa Bay -110
• Avalanche vs. Lightning over-under: 6 goals
• Avalanche vs. Lightning puck line: Colorado +1.5 (-270)
• Avalanche vs. Lightning tickets: See tickets at StubHub
• COL: The Avalanche were 24-14-3 on the road in the regular season
• TB: The Lightning were 27-8-6 at home in the regular season

Why the Avalanche can win

The Avalanche have dominated the entire Stanley Cup playoffs. Colorado has a 14-2 record, which is impressive on its own, and the Avalanche have out-scored opponents by 33 goals in those 16 contests. That dominance is headlined by what transpired in Game 2, when Colorado won by a 7-0 margin. That was the second-largest margin of victory in a shutout in Stanley Cup Final history, and the seven goals tied the highest mark allowed by Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy in either the regular season or playoffs. 

Colorado took more than double the amount of shots (60-28) thanTampa Bay in the second game of the series, and the Avalanche have scored at least three goals in 10 consecutive games. That includes a sweep in the Western Conference finals and the first two games of this series in which Colorado has scored at least four goals in every contest.

Why the Lightning can win

The Lightning won the last two Stanley Cup titles, and Tampa Bay posted a 51-win season in 2021-22. Tampa Bay is the first team in more than thirty years to reach the Stanley Cup Final in three straight seasons, and the Lightning won’t be bothered by a 2-0 deficit. Tampa Bay averaged 3.48 goals per game in the regular season, ranking in the top 10 of the NHL in goals, assists, shooting percentage, and power play percentage. 

On the other end, Tampa Bay was No. 6 in the NHL in goals allowed and goals allowed per game, with a top-10 save percentage of 91.3 percent. The man most responsible for that is reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. He has struggled in the series, but many believe he is the best goaltender in the world, and the four-time All-Star tied for the NHL in goalie wins (39) this season. With a talented, experienced offense and defense in front of him, the Lightning should put together an all-out effort at home. 

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 6.5 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 3 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.