2022 Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche vs. Lightning odds, NHL picks, Game 1 prediction from hockey model

The Tampa Bay Lightning’s reign appeared as if it might be over as they lost the first two games of the Eastern Conference final against the New York Rangers. However, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions showed their mettle, winning the next four contests to become the first team to reach the Stanley Cup Final three straight times since Edmonton accomplished the feat from 1983-85. The Lightning continue their quest for a third consecutive championship when they visit the Colorado Avalanche for Game 1 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday.

Opening face-off at Ball Arena is set for 8 p.m. ET. Colorado is the -160 favorite (risk $160 to win $100) in the latest Avalanche vs. Lightning odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total goals scored is six. Before making any Lightning vs. Avalanche picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates each NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the 2022 Stanley Cup Final on a 23-18 run on its top-rated NHL side picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has its sights on Avs vs. Lightning. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds and betting trends for Lightning vs. Avs: 

• Avalanche vs. Lightning money line: Colorado -160, Tampa Bay +140
• Avalanche vs. Lightning over-under: 6 goals
• Avalanche vs. Lightning puck line: Colorado -1.5 (+170)
• Avalanche vs. Lightning tickets: See tickets at StubHub
• COL: The Avalanche are 37-7-4 at home this season, including the playoffs
• TB: The Lightning are 13-3 in their last 16 playoff games as underdogs

Why the Avalanche can win

Colorado’s offense has been firing on all cylinders thus far this postseason, scoring at least three goals in all but two of its 14 contests. The Avalanche are tied for first in playoff goals with Edmonton, which they outscored 22-13 during their four-game sweep in the Western Conference final. Nathan MacKinnon has been Colorado’s top sniper as he is tied for second in the league with 11 tallies after netting 32 over 65 games in the regular season.

The 26-year-old MacKinnon is seventh in the league with 18 points this postseason and has notched at least one in 12 of Colorado’s 14 contests. Defenseman Cale Makar is one spot ahead of MacKinnon with 22 points while Mikko Rantanen and captain Gabriel Landeskog have notched 17 apiece. Makar registered nine points in the series against the Oilers, including five in Game 4, while Rantanen and Landeskog each recorded six.

Why the Lightning can win

Tampa Bay has proven it has the depth to compensate for the absence of Brayden Point, who led the NHL with 14 goals each of the last two postseasons. The Lightning have won eight of their 10 games since the 26-year-old center went down with a lower-body injury in Game 7 of their first-round series against Toronto. Captain Steven Stamkos leads the team with nine tallies, including both in its clinching 2-1 win against the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference final, while Ondrej Palat has netted eight.

The 31-year-old Palat, who has recorded seven points during his four-game streak, scored two game-winning goals versus New York and is Tampa Bay’s all-time leader in the category with 11 as he has recorded at least two in five of his last six postseasons. Nikita Kucherov is tied for fourth in the league with 23 points after leading the NHL each of the last two postseasons with 34 and 32, respectively. The 28-year-old Russian right wing is riding a five-game point streak during which he has registered three goals and five assists.

How to make Lightning vs. Avalanche picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as the simulations have the teams combining for 7.1 goals. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Lightning vs. Avalanche in Game 1 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Avalanche vs. Lightning money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times.