2022 NFL playoff odds, line, divisional round picks: Bills vs. Chiefs prediction from expert who’s 23-8

The divisional round of the 2022 NFL playoffs features the Buffalo Bills (11-6) going on the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) on Sunday evening. Buffalo’s offense was red-hot on a freezing cold night in the 47-17 victory over the New England Patriots last week. The Bills finished with 482 total yards of offense and scored on seven straight offensive possessions. Kansas City also had an impressive win in the Wild Card Round. The Chiefs blew out the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Kansas City is a two-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 54.5 in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Chiefs vs. Bills picks, be sure to see the 2021 NFL playoff predictions from SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein. 

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. This season he has been on fire. Hartstein is 70-46-1 in his last 117 NFL sides, for a profit of more than $1800.

In addition, Hartstein has gone an astounding 23-8 in his last 31 NFL picks involving Kansas City, returning $1400 to $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, Hartstein has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Bills, and just locked in his NFL playoff picks and divisional round predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL playoff odds and divisional round betting lines for Bills vs. Chiefs:

• Bills vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -2
• Bills vs. Chiefs over-under: 54.5 points
• Bills vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -130, Buffalo +110
• KC: Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as home favorites
• BUF: Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City had a dominant victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers during Super Wild Card Weekend. The Chiefs dropped 42 points and logged 478 total yards of offense. The Steelers had no answer for this high-powered offense. Kansas City converted 8-of-12 third downs and averaged 7.4 yards per play.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes had a sensational performance in the victory. He went 30-of-39 for 404 yards and five passing touchdowns. Tight end Travis Kelce led the team with 108 receiving yards on five receptions, including a 48-yard touchdown grab. Receiver Byron Pringle had five catches for 37 yards with a team-high two touchdowns. This potent offense will look to have another high-scoring outing. 

Why the Bills can cover 

Buffalo heads into this contest with one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bills finished the season ranked fifth in total offense (381.9) and third in scoring (29.4). This unit is headlined by quarterback Josh Allen. The Wyoming product finished the year eighth in passing yards (4,407) and seventh in passing touchdowns (36). Allen lit up the Patriots’ defense last week. He went 21-of-25 for 308 yards and five passing touchdowns.

This potent offense also features receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Dawson Knox. Diggs finished the season ranked in the top 10 in multiple categories. The 2020 First-Team All-Pro was tied for ninth in receptions (103), eighth in receiving yards (1,225) and tied for sixth in touchdowns (10). Knox has developed into one of Allen’s favorite targets. The Ole Miss product has reeled in 49 passes for 587 yards and nine scores. Knox is coming off a great performance. The 2019 third-round pick caught five passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns. 

How to make Bills vs Chiefs picks

For Sunday’s divisional round matchup, Hartstein is leaning over on the point total. He also has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills in Sunday’s 2022 NFL playoff divisional round matchup? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Larry Hartstein’s Bills vs. Chiefs pick and analysis, all from the NFL expert who’s 23-8 on his latest against the spread picks involving Kansas City, and find out.