It used to be that the team that finished the season with the worst overall record would have the highest draft odds, and would be guaranteed of a top-four pick, but that isn’t quite the case anymore. The league smoothed the odds in 2019 in an attempt to curb tanking, and now the league’s three worst teams record-wise all have equal odds of landing the top pick. The team with the worst overall record is now guaranteed a top-five pick.
Five different teams will have at least a 10% chance of getting the top overall pick this year, while nine teams have will have at least a 20-percent chance of landing in the top four. In other words, there’s a lot of optimism heading into the lottery, which is scheduled for Tuesday, May 17. It is on that date that teams will officially find out where they pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, which will take place on June 23. (Find our latest mock drafts here.)
In the meantime, here’s a look at the lottery odds for the 14 teams that will likely be participating. The Hornets, Pelicans, Spurs and Hawks could move out of the lottery if they win twice in this week’s play-in tournament and advance to the first round of the playoffs.
Houston Rockets | 20-62 | .244 | 52.1 | 14 |
Orlando Magic | 22-60 | .268 | 52.1 | 14 |
Detroit Pistons | 23-59 | .280 | 52.1 | 14 |
Oklahoma City Thunder | 24-58 | .293 | 48.1 | 12.5 |
Indiana Pacers | 25-57 | .305 | 42.1 | 10.5 |
Portland Trail Blazers | 27-55 | .329 | 37.2 | 9.0 |
Sacramento Kings | 30-52 | .366 | 32.0 | 7.5 |
New Orleans Pelicans (via L.A. Lakers) | 33-49 | .402 | 26.3 | 6.0 |
San Antonio Spurs | 34-48 | .415 | 20.3 | 4.5 |
Washington Wizards | 35-47 | .427 | 13.9 | 3.0 |
Portland Trail Blazers (via New Orleans Pelicans) | 36-46 | .439 | 9.4 | 2.0 |
New York Knicks | 37-45 | .451 | 7.1 | 1.5 |
Atlanta Hawks | 43-39 | .524 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
Charlotte Hornets | 43-39 | .524 | 3.4 | 0.7 |