Nationals vs. Marlins odds, line: 2022 MLB picks, July 4 predictions from proven baseball model

The Miami Marlins visit the nation’s capital for a holiday battle on Monday, July 4. The Marlins take on the Washington Nationals in the finale of a four-game set between division rivals. Nationals Park hosts the proceedings, and the Nationals will aim to avoid a sweep. The Marlins are on a four-game winning streak, including the first three games against Washington, and Miami is now 37-40 this season.

First pitch in this Fourth of July matchup is at 11:05 a.m. ET in Washington. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a -120 favorite (risk $120 to win $100) on the money line, while the over-under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 9.5 in the latest Marlins vs. Nationals odds. Before making any Nationals vs. Marlins picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and it is off to a strong start to the 2022 season. It’s on a 59-51 run on top-rated MLB money-line picks through 12 weeks. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nationals vs. Marlins, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Marlins vs. Nationals:

• Nationals vs. Marlins money line: Marlins -120, Nationals +100
• Nationals vs. Marlins over-under: 9.5 runs
• Nationals vs. Marlins run line: Marlins -1.5 (+130)
• MIA: The Marlins are 18-24 in road games
• WASH: The Nationals are 14-30 in home games
• Nationals vs. Marlins picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Marlins

Miami has a speed advantage that is plain and obvious. The Marlins lead the National League with 62 stolen bases this season, and Miami can pick up extra bases with regularity with an aggressive approach. Miami’s offense has also improved during a four-game winning streak, and the Marlins are set to face a shaky starting pitcher in Patrick Corbin. 

Washington’s left-handed starter has a 6.06 ERA this season, and he has allowed more hits (107) and runs (55) than any National League pitcher in 2022. Corbin has an unsightly 1.70 WHIP this season, and that plays into Miami’s hands. From there, Washington’s offense has strengths, but it also falls well below the National League average in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage this season.

Why you should back the Nationals

Washington has encouraging offensive metrics in several categories. The Nationals, led by Josh Bell and Juan Soto, are above-average in the National League in both hits and doubles this season. Washington is also in the top five of the NL with a .252 batting average, and no National League team has a lower strikeout rate than the Nationals at 19.3 percent. Bell has 12 home runs, including a pivotal blast on Sunday, and he has an impressive .319/.401/.517 slash line this season. 

Soto is a perennial star, and he has 15 home runs and a .382 on-base percentage while generating more walks than strikeouts in 2022. Washington is also facing a vulnerable starting pitcher in Miami’s Braxton Garrett. He has a 5.24 ERA this season and a 5.20 career ERA while posting a 1.70 WHIP this season. Opponents have an .886 OPS against Garrett in 2022, including a .919 OPS from right-handed batters.

How to make Marlins vs. Nationals picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 9.1 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Nationals vs. Marlins? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.