Stanley Cup Final will continue to be a high-scoring affair, plus other best bets for Wednesday

Do you expect Rob Gronkowski to stay retired this time? I was certain he would return when he retired the first time, and I’m about 50/50 for this second retirement. There’s a part of me wondering if the 33-year-old tight end found himself staring down the face of minicamps and OTAs and thought he’d rather enjoy his summer than go through all of it, but when the fall rolls around, Tom Brady might give him a call to see if he’s got the itch.

If he does return, he could win another Super Bowl. If he doesn’t, he retires as one of the greatest tight ends we’ve ever seen. But the more I think about it, the more I think we’ll see him on the field again sometime this fall. So let’s move that 50/50 to 55/45 he’ll be back.

• Speaking of Gronk, Cade Otton is a rookie TE in Tampa and one of Chris Trapasso’s top five rookie tight ends for 2022.
• I went through every game in the Big Ten schedule to figure out how you should bet 2022 win totals.

Let’s have a Wednesday.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

Avalanche at Lightning, 8 p.m. | TV: ABC

• Key Trend: There have been at least seven goals scored in all three games.
• The Pick: Over 6 (+105)

The vibes didn’t lie to us on Monday night when we took Tampa in a must-win situation and they delivered their best performance of the series in a 6-2 win. That eight-goal output would have me a little nervous about tonight if I’m a Lightning fan, though. I don’t know if the Bolts can maintain that kind of output, particularly with Brayden Point still out.

Aside from that, I think we’ll continue to see a high-scoring series because these teams have averaged 7.67 power plays and 42.7 penalty minutes per game. Colorado has scored on 33.9% of its power-play opportunities, the highest rate in the playoffs. While the Lightning have converted at only a 20.3% clip, neither team has performed well on the kill. The Avs are at 79.6%, while the Bolts are at 77.9%.

Should the penalties continue — I don’t see much changing as we get deeper into the series — we’ll see plenty more opportunities tonight. That, combined with two teams that can score at full strength just as well, leads me to believe tonight’s game won’t look much different than the first three.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: As was the case with Game 3, the Projection Model doesn’t like anything very much tonight, though its strongest lean is to the over. However, SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has made a play on the total while Matt Severance is betting the money line.

The Picks

MLB

Tigers at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Red Sox (-125) — We’re getting way too much value on the Red Sox tonight against a very bad Tigers team. Detroit doesn’t score runs, which are rather important in this sport. Its run rate of 8.14% is the worst in the league, as is its HR rate of 1.54%. Because of all that, I’m not as worried about Boston starter Michael Wacha as the market seems to be.

Wacha limits walks and hard contact. Meanwhile, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal is the better starter on paper and has been fantastic this season, but he’s scuffling lately. He’s posted an ERA of 6.75 in his last three starts, and opponents have slugged .585 against him in that span. He’ll likely bounce back, but I’m not betting it to happen against a Boston team with a wRC+ of 114 against lefties this season. There isn’t much reason to be optimistic about Detroit’s chances tonight.

Key Trend: Boston has won six of the last seven meetings in Boston.

Giants at Braves, 7:20 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Under 9 (-120) — The juice is a little heavier than I’d like, but I’ll live with it simply because the total is too high. We’ve got a pretty outstanding pitching matchup between Carlos Rodon and Charlie Morton here, and I think Morton’s numbers have skewed the total slightly. Morton has an ERA of 5.08 through 67.1 innings, but the underlying metrics suggest he’s been somewhat unlucky — particularly with dingers — and should see some better luck soon.

Morton’s strikeout rate is still above the league average, and his walk rate is average. He allows more flyballs than most, but he limits hard contact. Conversely, Carlos Rodon can be untouchable at times, with a strikeout rate of 30.5% and a swinging strike rate of 13.4%. Nobody is hitting him very hard, as his barrel rate of 5% against is outstanding. Both are backed by solid — and more importantly — rested bullpens. Runs should be at a premium in Atlanta tonight.

Key Trend: The under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

SportsLine Pick of the Day: The winner of tonight’s game between the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians gets first place in the AL Central, and the Projection Model has a strong lean toward which one of the two it’ll be.

Travelers Championship Top 10s

Shout out to Keegan Bradley for finishing in the top 10 last weekend to keep our streak of profitable weeks rolling. This week we’ll be relying on these five fine gentlemen to finish in the top 10.

• Justin Thomas (+165)
• Xander Schauffele (+200)
• Joaquin Niemann (+300)
• Sungjae Im (+300)
• Mito Pereira (+450)