Kentucky Derby odds, picks, field 2022: Taiba, Epicenter predictions by same expert who called Medina Spirit

Brothers Irad Ortiz Jr. and Jose Ortiz will try to reverse their fortunes when they leave the starting gate in the 2022 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 7 at Churchill Downs. Jose, who won the Eclipse award for Outstanding Jockey in 2017, and Irad, who won the award in 2018, 2019 and 2020, have never won the Kentucky Derby in 11 combined mounts. The best finish between the two came in 2018, when Jose finished second aboard Good Magic. This year, Irad will be aboard Mo Donegal, who is 8-1 in the 2022 Kentucky Derby odds, while Jose will ride Simplification, a 22-1 longshot in the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. Epicenter, who will be ridden by Joel Rosario, is the 5-1 2022 Kentucky Derby favorite. The 2022 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before you make any Kentucky Derby 2022 predictions, you’ll want to see what astute racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu’s 2022 Kentucky Derby picks and analysis.

Few people in racing are as connected as Yu. An on-air host and reporter who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders’ Cup, Yu has spent a lifetime in racing. Prior to her television career, she worked for trainers Steve Asmussen and Ron Moquett. She also is married to Santa Anita-based trainer Ryan Hanson.

She also has tremendous handicapping chops. In the 2011 Kentucky Derby, she correctly tabbed Animal Kingdom to win at a hefty 21-1. In the 2017 Breeders’ Cup, she nailed 11-1 long shot Wuheida to win the Filly and Mare Turf. Last year in a wide-open Kentucky Derby, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1.

Since joining SportsLine in November, her picks have cashed in six of 12 races, including the exacta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Anyone who has followed her is way up.

Now, Yu has handicapped the 2022 Kentucky Derby odds, made her picks and constructed her bets. Click here to see them.

Top 2022 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis

One surprise: Yu is fading Messier, even though he is one of the top 2022 Kentucky Derby favorites at 6-1. A son of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Messier has three wins and three seconds in six career starts. He is coming off a runner-up finish to Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby.

However, Yu doesn’t believe Messier’s accomplishments stack up with other 2022 Kentucky Derby horses. “He was bested by Taiba in [the Santa Anita Derby] pretty handily, he has been defeated before as a favorite, and, while he had one brilliant race [against four rivals], I think his odds are too low to back him,” Yu told SportsLine. Yu will not have Messier in her 2022 Kentucky Derby betting strategy.

Yu has locked in her 2022 Kentucky Derby picks for Epicenter, the favorite at 5-1. Asmussen is 0-for-23 at the Kentucky Derby, but had runner-up finishes with Nehro in 2011 and Lookin At Lee in 2017. Epicenter is looking like the best shot for the winningest trainer in the history of North American horse racing to win the Run for the Roses.

Epicenter has four wins in six career starts, including graded stakes wins at the Louisiana Derby and Risen Star Stakes over fellow Kentucky Derby contenders 2022 like Zandon, Smile Happy and Zozos. However, he was also bested by Call Me Midnight, who did not qualify for the 2022 Kentucky Derby lineup, at the Lecomte Stakes.

Yu also has a strong read on Taiba, one of the favorites in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2022 at 6-1. History is on the line for Taiba at Churchill Downs. Taiba is looking to become the first horse since Leonatus in 1883 to win the Kentucky Derby in just his third start.

Taiba is undefeated thus far in his career, winning both of his starts at Santa Anita Park. The three-year-old Colt will look to keep his impressive streak going at Churchill Downs, where he’ll have a jockey with a ton of experience. Mike Smith, a two-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey who rode Justify to a Triple Crown in 2018, will be in the saddle on Taiba at the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

How to make 2022 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Yu is high on three other horses, including an enormous long shot you need to see now. Yu says this long shot “always comes running in the end” and will appear in all of her exotics, potentially setting up a huge payday. She is including this horse in her 2022 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.

Where do Messier, Taiba and Epicenter, and every other horse finish in the 2022 Kentucky Derby? And which enormous long shot is a must-back? Check out the Kentucky Derby odds 2022 below, then visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed last year’s winner on Derby Day.

2022 Kentucky Derby odds, horses, futures