Heat vs. Hawks prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets from model on 85-55 run

The top-seeded Miami Heat welcome the Atlanta Hawks to FTX Arena for Game 1 of a first round tilt on Sunday. Miami finished the regular season with a 53-29 overall mark and a 29-12 record in home games. Atlanta emerged from the play-in tournament with back-to-back wins, but the Hawks were just 43-39 overall and 16-25 on the road during the 82-game regular season marathon. John Collins (finger/foot) is listed as questionable for the Hawks, with Clint Capela (knee) and Lou Williams (back) ruled out. Markieff Morris (calf), Dewayne Dedmon (ankle), and P.J. Tucker (calf) are listed as questionable for the Heat.

Tipoff is at 1 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the 6.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 219.5 in the latest Hawks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Hawks picks, be sure to see the NBA playoff 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 85-55 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:

• Hawks vs. Heat spread: Heat -6.5
• Hawks vs. Heat over-under: 219.5 points
• Hawks vs. Heat money line: Heat -300, Hawks +240
• ATL: The Hawks are 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 games
• MIA: The Heat are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven games

Why the Hawks can cover

Atlanta is keyed by an elite offense, and that offensive is engineered by Trae Young. The All-Star point guard led the entire NBA in total points and total assists during the regular season, and Young’s presence levels the playing field, even in a 1-versus-8 matchup. Young averaged 28.4 points and 9.7 assists per game while connecting on 38.2 percent of 3-point attempts during the regular season, and he produced 31 points and 10 assists per game during the play-in tournament. His upside was highlighted in a 32-point second half eruption against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday, leading a comeback that allowed the Hawks to advance. 

As a team, the Hawks are No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta also takes care of the ball at a fantastic level, leading the NBA in turnover avoidance and ranking in the top four of the league in assist-to-turnover ratio. 

Why the Heat can cover

While Atlanta might have the most prolific offensive player in the series, the Heat have plenty of star power and balance. Miami is led by Jimmy Butler, who averaged 21.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game during the regular season. Butler is also a tremendous defender, and he is flanked by Bam Adebayo, an excellent defensive player who averages 19.1 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Tyler Herro is the leading scorer in the NBA from a bench role, averaging 20.7 points per game, and Miami leads the NBA in 3-point accuracy at 37.9 percent. 

The Heat also rank in the top six of the league in 3-points per game, assist percentage and free throw percentage, with top-10 marks in assists per game and offensive rebound rate. Atlanta finished the regular season with a bottom-five defensive efficiency mark in the NBA, and the Hawks rank No. 25 or worse in both 3-point defense and turnover creation. 

How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 228 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.