The Angels shouldn’t be heavy favorites vs. Rangers, plus other best bets for Thursday

It happened again. I got mad on the internet about people saying things I disagreed with. I try not to do it, but darn it, it just happens sometimes. Yesterday it was The Clayton Kershaw Discourse, and how people became SO UPSET about the Dodgers pulling Kershaw with a perfect game after seven innings because he’d thrown 80 pitches.

In short, while the decision stunk, it was also the right decision. Clayton Kershaw missed a huge chunk of last season — including the playoffs — because of an elbow injury, and that same elbow injury kept him from being able to throw during the offseason. So a truncated spring training and one start isn’t nearly enough to have his arm in shape to throw a complete game.

Yet everybody felt the Dodgers should’ve thrown him back out there for their amusement anyway. I get it, but does anybody else notice the strange disconnect about how fans treat health across different sports? In football, any time a player takes a blow to the head, social media goes into a rage if that player is allowed to return to the game too quickly. That player’s health becomes the most important thing, but when it’s a pitcher’s elbow — their livelihood — it no longer matters. Just make them throw until it falls off. Does caring about an athlete’s health and proactively trying to protect them from themselves only apply to their head and nothing else?

• It’s a seven-round mock draft!
• Sean Payton is the latest coach to claim they knew Tom Brady would be great all along.
• Ben Simmons dressing up as a leprechaun during the play-in game was a sign.
• If Ohio State wants to win another national title, it has to rediscover a once great pass-rush.

OK, I’m going to go take some deep, calming breaths. You read these picks.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

Angels at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB Network

• Key Trend: The Rangers have won four of the last five meetings.
• The Pick: Rangers (+130)

There’s nothing more profitable than betting against people having fun. I have no mathematical data to support this, but it feels true. Tonight we’re fading everybody’s favorite baseball player: Shohei Ohtani. He will start for the Angels tonight, which is appointment television for all sports fans, and it’s also appointment betting.

Everybody loves Shohei. I love him. You love him. Even that guy who works at the gas station you go to who hates everybody hates him a little less than he hates everybody else. How could you not? But all that love leads to the Angels being overvalued when Ohtani starts, and that’s the case tonight. Now, to be clear, Ohtani is incredible and will probably pitch well tonight. What we’re fading more than anything is the Angels bullpen, because Ohtani isn’t going to pitch deep into this game.

The Angels bullpen currently has an ERA of 6.31 in the 2022 season (29th) and a home run rate allowed of 7.41% (30th). Those dudes are getting lit up out there, and while you might say that 2022 is a small sample size, it was one of the worst in baseball last season too. Also, while it’s another small sample, the Rangers offense has been better than Los Angeles’ so far this season. The Rangers have a wRC+ of 108 and are 12th in baseball with a wOBA of .321 with the league’s third-lowest strikeout rate (16.1%). In other words, I’m not entirely sure the right team is favored here. At the very least, it shouldn’t be favored this heavily.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model sees solid value on the moneyline tonight as well, with a B-graded play. But which team is it betting?

The Picks

MLB

Braves at Padres, 8:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Joe Musgrove Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150) — If you’re wondering if I went a little longer on the explanation for the last bet than I usually do, I did! Why? Well, because both of our other bets tonight are strikeout props, and there’s only so much I can write about a strikeout prop. The premise is pretty simple. “I think this pitcher will have more/fewer strikeouts than this number because he’s good/sucks.”

But to make myself seem more intelligent than I am, I’ll go into some detail. Joe Musgrove has struck out 27.4% of batters he’s faced since last season, which is 17% higher than the league average for starting pitchers. But — BUT!!! — against current Atlanta players, his strikeout rate is only 19.4%, and they’ve made some excellent contact against him. Plus, the Atlanta offense is just about league average when it comes to K rate. So I’m not sure how often Musgrove is getting to seven strikeouts against this team, especially this early in the season.

Key Trend: Joe Musgrove has averaged 6 strikeouts in his last seven starts.

Reds at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Walker Buehler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105) — On the other end of the spectrum we have Walker Buehler. His strikeout rate since last season isn’t as high as Musgrove’s (25.9%), but it’s still 11% above the league average, and he’s performed better against the Reds hitters he’ll see tonight, posting a K% of 30.4% against them in 69 plate appearances.

Furthermore, if the Reds offense has shown its good at anything this season, it’s striking out. The Reds have struck out 27.6% of the time. Only the Twins and Orioles have struck out more often. So while Buehler will be on a limited pitch count like everybody else, he might not need more than four innings to get past this number.

Key Trend: The Reds have struck out in 27.6% of their plate appearances this season.

SportsLine Pick of the Day: The USFL is starting this weekend, and if there’s football on, somebody is going to be betting on it, so it may as well be you. Thankfully, SportsLine’s R.J. White has paid attention to the league so you don’t have to, and he knows what you should be betting.

Tonight’s Parlay

Who’s up for a hockey parlay? We don’t bet hockey often in this newsletter, but you know that when we do, it’s because there isn’t much else going on! Anyway, tonight’s parlay pays +117.

• Lightning (-380)
• Hurricanes (-380)
• Avalanche (-280)