Warriors vs. Spurs prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA picks, April 9 best bets from model on 84-54 run

The Golden State Warriors place a three-game winning streak on the line in prime time on Saturday. The Warriors visit the San Antonio Spurs for a Western Conference clash, and Golden State is 51-29 overall and 20-19 on the road. San Antonio is 7-2 in the last nine games, improving to 34-46. Stephen Curry (foot), Klay Thompson (rest), and James Wiseman (knee) are out for the Warriors. Romeo Langford (hamstring) is questionable for the Spurs, with Dejounte Murray (illness), Keldon Johnson (knee), Doug McDermott (ankle), Jakob Poeltl (back) and Devin Vassell (heel) ruled out. Golden State is currently third in the West and is trying to hold off the Mavericks for the No. 3 seed. The Spurs have clinched a spot in the play-in and they’ll likely be the No. 10 seed. 

Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET in San Antonio. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 5.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Spurs odds. Before locking in any Spurs vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 25 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 84-54 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Spurs, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Spurs vs. Warriors:

• Warriors vs. Spurs spread: Warriors -5.5
• Warriors vs. Spurs over-under: 221.5 points
• Warriors vs. Spurs money line: Warriors -250, Spurs +205
• GSW: The Warriors are 17-20-2 against the spread in road games
• SAS: The Spurs are 19-21 against the spread in home games

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State’s offense is elite in key categories, including a top-five mark in the NBA with 27.1 assists per game. The Warriors are elite inside the arc, shooting 55.7 percent on 2-point attempts, and Golden State ranks in the top ten in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and fast break points per game. From there, Golden State’s top-tier defense takes over, and the Warriors allow fewer than 1.07 points per possession. 

The Warriors secure 73.7 percent of available defensive rebounds, a top-five mark in the NBA, and Golden State ranks near the top of the league in points allowed in the paint, steals per game and second-chance points allowed. The Warriors also make life miserable for opposing scorers, giving up only 43.9 percent shooting. Opponents are shooting only 33.9 percent from 3-point range and 51.0 percent on 2-point attempts against Golden State, and the Warriors create 14.6 turnovers per contest on defense.

Why the Spurs can cover

San Antonio’s point differential greatly outpaces its record for the season, and the Spurs have strong metrics on both ends. The Spurs lead the NBA in assists (28.1 per game) and assist-to-turnover ratio (21.9), with top-five marks in turnover rate (12.6 percent) and assist percentage (64.6 percent). San Antonio is scoring 53.6 points per game in the paint, No. 2 in the NBA, and the Spurs are in the top eight of the league in offensive rebound rate (28.3 percent) and second-chance points (14.4 per game). 

The Spurs are also above-average in fast break points (13.6 per game) and field goal percentage (46.7 percent), and the Warriors are just No. 24 in the NBA in free throw prevention on defense. San Antonio’s defense ranks in the top 10 of the NBA in free throw prevention, assist prevention, fast break points allowed and blocked shots, with opponents shooting only 52.8 percent on 2-point attempts. Golden State is in the bottom five of the NBA in turnovers per game and free throw attempts per game on offense.

How to make Spurs vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits almost 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.