Kansas vs. North Carolina: Why defense will shine, plus best prop bets to make for title game

What a week of sports we’ve got here. It began last night with the women’s title game — as well as Wrestlemania for those who like fake sports, too — and tonight we’ve got the men’s national title game. But while I’ve got plenty of picks for you tonight, there’s plenty more to come this week.

We have the Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, the final week of the NBA regular season, MLB Opening Day on Thursday and The Masters. And there are probably some other sports going on that somebody will get mad at me for not mentioning and send me an email in ALL CAPS about.

I’m sorry I didn’t mention it! To make it up to you, how about these lovely stories from the world of sports I am aware of? It seems like a fair trade, doesn’t it?

• The top storylines for The Masters, and they’re not all about Tiger Woods.
• MLB starts Thursday, and that means we must Power Rank all 30 teams.
• Ryan Wilson’s latest NFL Mock Draft is out.
• Before I share my favorite title game picks with you, check out what our college basketball team has to say.

Cue “One Shining Moment.”

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 North Carolina, 9:20 p.m. | TV: TBS

• Key Trend: The under is 9-4 in the last 13 title games.
• The Pick: Under 151.5 (-110)

The men’s college basketball season ends tonight in New Orleans, and while it might not be the “fun” bet, we’re on the under. If you haven’t already, it’s time to stop looking at North Carolina as a No. 8 seed on some kind of surprising run. The Tar Heels were an eight seed because they got off to a slow start under a new coach. The Heels were once 12-6 and 4-3 in the ACC, and while they didn’t have any bad losses from an opponent perspective, they got blown out a few too many times.

Since then, they’ve been one of the elite teams in the country and have gone 17-3 since. A key part of the turnaround has been on the defensive end. North Carolina’s defensive efficiency ranks 39th nationally on the season, but it’s been a top-10 unit during the postseason. Kansas has been solid defensively all year and has stepped up its game even further in the postseason as well.

Tonight we’re betting on both of those defenses to shine through. Plus, we can’t overlook the human element of this game. There’s a title on the line tonight. There will be nerves, particularly early, and it should affect the offensive efficiency of both teams. And while I’m not betting the spread tonight, I’d be betting Kansas if I were because North Carolina may have played its title game on Saturday night (considering all that was on the line against Duke).

I’m hoping for another classic tonight along. I just don’t expect it to be as high-scoring.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model doesn’t have much to say about the spread tonight, but it loves one side of the total.

Kansas vs. North Carolina Prop Bets

The Pick: Caleb Love Under 17.5 Points (+100) — This is a contrarian play, but there’s nothing wrong with that. Frankly, if there’s ever a time to go against the grain, it’s during marquee matchups like this one. Caleb Love is on an absolute heater. After a terrible performance against Baylor that saw him score only five points and go 1-for-6 from the floor, Love has averaged 24 points over the last three games — but he’s done that while shooting 45.9% overall and only 33% from three. Yes, he’s hit a lot of big shots, but he’s not, nor has he been, an efficient scorer.

If you look at the five players that make up the UNC starting lineup, he’s the least efficient scorer. His eFG% of 46.9% isn’t great, though it has improved to 53.7% in the tournament. But unless he’s taken his game to an entirely new level, at some point, he’s going to regress to what he was all season long, and this total feels about a point too high to me.

Key Trend: While he hits big shots, Love is the least efficient scorer of Carolina’s starting five.

The Pick: David McCormack Under 7.5 Rebounds (-130) — If North Carolina’s Armando Bacot plays — and I fully expect him to — this total is asking a bit too much of Kansas’ David McCormack. Don’t get me wrong, McCormack is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. His offensive rebound rate of 17.3% ranks fourth nationally. The problem he faces is that North Carolina is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, primarily because of Bacot.

The Tar Heels are the second-best defensive rebounding team in the country, with a rate of 78.4%. McCormack and Kansas haven’t run into many teams that hit the defensive glass so well. If McCormack doesn’t have access to the same offensive boards he typically gets, it’ll be difficult to get over the 7.5 mark.

Key Trend: McCormack has averaged only 5.6 rebounds per game in the tournament.

SportsLine Pick of the Day: Matt Severance is 105-73-4 on his last 182 against-the-spread picks in college basketball, and he has released his spread pick for tonight’s national championship game.

Champions League Picks

The Champions League quarterfinals begin this week, and I do not want to send you into Tuesday and Wednesday without knowing what you should be betting for them. If you’d like a more in-depth explanation of the picks, you can find it here.

• Manchester City vs Atlético Madrid Both Teams to Score (+115
• Liverpool Over 2.5 (+130)
• Chelsea (+108)
• Villarreal vs. Bayern Munich Over 2.5 (-160)