Mavericks vs. Rockets odds, line: 2022 NBA picks, Mar. 11 prediction from proven computer model

The Houston Rockets and the Dallas Mavericks are set to square off in a Southwest Division matchup at 8 p.m. ET Friday at Toyota Center. The Rockets are 17-49 overall and 10-21 at home, while Dallas is 40-26 overall and 17-14 on the road. The Mavs won the two previous meetings this season by double-digits although the teams split the games against the spread.

Dallas is favored by 10.5 points in the latest Rockets vs. Mavericks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 225.5. Before entering any Mavericks vs. Rockets picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 20 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 74-47 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Mavericks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Mavericks vs. Rockets:

• Rockets vs. Mavericks spread: Rockets +10.5
• Rockets vs. Mavericks over-under: 225.5 points

What you need to know about the Rockets

It may have taken overtime to finish the job, but Houston ultimately got the result it was hoping for on Wednesday with a 139-130 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. Among those leading the charge for Houston was shooting guard Jalen Green, who had 32 points. He was among seven different Rockets in double figures as the 139 points was the second-most for Houston this season.

But you can’t ignore the 130 points the Rockets gave up in that game and the defensive end has been their kryptonite all season. The team ranks last in the NBA in points allowed (118.1), defensive efficiency (116.6) and FG percentage allowed (48.3 percent). Houston is 12-14 when it allows under 114 points in a game but is just 5-35 when allowing more than 114 points. Christian Wood (illness), Dennis Schroder (ankle) and Jae’Sean Tate (ankle) are all questionable for Friday.

What you need to know about the Mavericks

Meanwhile, the night started off rough for Dallas on Wednesday, and it ended that way, too. The Mavs found themselves the reluctant recipients of an unfortunate 107-77 punch to the gut against the New York Knicks. Dallas was in a tough position by the half, with the score already sitting at 61-34. Point guard Jalen Brunson had a pretty forgettable game, finishing with only eight points on 3-for-12 shooting in his 25 minutes on the court.

It was the second-fewest points Dallas has scored all season and the team dropped to 0-10 when scoring under 95 points. Dallas’ strength this year is on the defensive end as the team ranks just 26th in points per game (106.7) and 22nd in 3P percentage (34.3). Brunson (thigh) and Dorian Finney-Smith (arm) are questionable for tonight’s game.

How to make Mavericks vs. Rockets picks

The model has simulated Rockets vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.