Corner Picks: Predictions, odds, best bets for Manchester City-Tottenham, Fiorentina-Atalanta and more

The funk continues for Corner Picks. We went 2-2 in our first Champions League column of the season earlier this week, which was an improvement over our last two weekends, but still leaves us at 4-8 over the last few weeks. The profits we made through January have disappeared.

I’m blaming the January transfer window. I’m not sure that it’s to blame, but it seems like an easy target considering all the player movement, so I’m going with it. The fact is that it doesn’t matter what’s actually happening. What matters is that I have a firm reason in my mind so I can stop trying to figure out what’s wrong and instead get back to picking winners.

Let’s cross our fingers extra tight this weekend and hope it works. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

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Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur

Date: Saturday, Feb. 19 | Time: 12:30 p.m. | Watch: NBC

The over in Manchester City’s dominant Champions League win over Sporting earlier this week is one of the few picks I’ve nailed lately, and even that one was half-wrong. My initial instinct was to take City’s team total over 2.5 instead of the match, but I second-guessed myself and went with the match and then kicked myself as I saw City score five times. No more second-guessing. I’m going the opposite direction for this match and taking the under.

Antonio Conte is doing the Antonio Conte thing where he complains that the team he’s managing is cheap. It’s one of his go-to moves. Another of Conte’s go-to moves is when his team is struggling, defend like hell. Make the clean sheet more important than the three points. I anticipate we’ll see Tottenham park the bus this weekend to limit City’s attack, and evidence shows it might work. Since Conte took over Tottenham in early November, Spurs have played five matches on the road. Their expected goals (xG) allowed in those matches has been an excellent 3.6. Now, Man City are still Man City, and they can score in bunches quickly, but there’s a lot of value on the under 2.5 at this price. Pick: Under 2.5 (+140)

Southampton vs. Everton

Date: Saturday, Feb. 19 | Time: 10 a.m. | Watch: Peacock

The new manager bump is real. We see it all the time in this sport, and Everton are riding the wave. Everton have won twice in three matches under Frank Lampard and scored eight goals to only four allowed. The lone loss came to a Newcastle squad flush with its own new manager and better players thanks to new ownership splashing the cash in the January window. In the FA Cup, Everton overpowered Brentford 4-1, and last weekend it was the same in a 3-0 win over Leeds United. While Brentford and Leeds are at the bottom of the table, Southampton are hardly a juggernaut.

In fact, Southampton’s defense has been horrific as of late, but they’ve gotten away with it. We all focus on the draws against Manchesters City and United and the win over Tottenham and think Southampton’s figured it out. We ignore that the Saints have allowed seven goals in their last four matches, and they have an average xG against of 1.68 over their last 12 Premier League matches. Southampton could win this game or earn a draw, but there’s no reason for it to be this heavily favored. Pick: Everton (+260)

Fiorentina vs. Atalanta

Date: Sunday, Feb. 20 | Time: 6:30 a.m. | Watch: Paramount+

Fiorentina deserve a lot of credit for the way they’ve played since losing Dusan Vlahovic to Juventus. A lot of teams would fall apart after losing such a vital cog, but the Violets have hung tough and even managed a 3-2 win over Atalanta in the Coppa Italia. Still, like anybody who suffers a severe injury, eventually, the adrenaline wears off, and you start to feel the pain of what’s happened. I suspect that will happen soon for Fiorentina.

Plus, as I mentioned, that 3-2 win over Atalanta a little over a week ago is impacting this line. That match was in Bergamo, and for whatever reason, Atalanta have been much worse at home (+2 goal differential) than on the road (+15 goal differential). I have concerns about Atalanta playing on a short week after beating Olympiacos in the Europa League, but this team has looked much stronger in its last few matches and seems to be adapting to life without Duvan Zapata finally. Pick: Atalanta (+165)

Weekend Parlay

This week’s parlay pays +154.

• Arsenal (-230)
• Real Madrid (-440)
• Rennes (-290)
• Bayern Munich (-1400)