Heat vs. Hornets prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA picks, Feb. 17 best bets from model on 67-39 run

The Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat face off in the final game before the All-Star break for both teams. The Hornets are 29-30 this season, aiming to reach the .500 mark to conclude the first half. The Heat are 37-21 and on a four-game road winning streak. Gordon Hayward (ankle), Cody Martin (ankle) and Jalen McDaniels (ankle) are out for the Hornets. Jimmy Butler (shoulder) and Caleb Martin (Achilles) are questionable for the Heat, with Tyler Herro (knee) and Dewayne Dedmon (personal) ruled out.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Charlotte. Miami is listed as a 4.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226 in the latest Heat vs. Hornets odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Hornets vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 67-39 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hornets, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Hornets vs. Heat:

• Heat vs. Hornets spread: Heat -4.5
• Heat vs. Hornets over-under: 226 points
• MIA: The Heat are 19-13 against the spread in road game
• CHA: The Hornets are 15-12 against the spread in home games

Why the Heat can cover

Miami ranks in the top eight of the NBA in both offense and defense. The Heat are scoring 112.1 points per 100 possessions while giving up only 107.6 points per 100 possessions on defense. Miami is No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point accuracy, making 37.5 percent of attempts, and the Heat are No. 1 in the league in free-throw accuracy at 81.5 percent. Miami is also in the top six of the NBA in assists per game (25.7), assist percentage (65.2 percent) and offensive rebound rate (29.4 percent). 

On defense, the Heat hold opponents to 39.9 points in the paint per game, leading the NBA. Miami is in the top five in field-goal percentage allowed at 44.3 percent, with opponents producing only 23.1 assists per game against the Heat. Miami is forcing 15.3 turnovers per game, a top-five figure in the NBA, and the Heat are in the top 10 in both defensive rebound rate (73.6 percent) and second-chance points allowed (12.4 per game).

Why the Hornets can cover

Charlotte’s offense is dynamic, with high-end strengths in key categories. The Hornets are making 13.7 3-pointers per game and shooting 35.8 percent from long distance. Charlotte is also averaging 27.2 assists per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and the Hornets assist on 64.4 percent of field goals. The Hornets take care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 13.0 percent of possessions, and Charlotte ranks in the top four of the NBA in fast-break points (16.2 per game) and points in the paint (50.0 per game). 

The Hornets are scoring more than 1.11 points per possession overall, and Miami is No. 27 in the league in 3-pointers allowed. The Heat are also in the bottom 10 of the NBA in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and Charlotte is adept at creating chaos on defense. The Hornets are averaging 15.3 turnovers per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and Charlotte is in the top five in averaging 8.7 steals per game. Miami is No. 27 in the league in points in the paint and No. 28 in the league in turnovers per game on the offensive end.

How to make Hornets vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hornets? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.