Celtics vs. Nuggets prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA picks, Feb. 11 best bets from model on 65-36 run

The Boston Celtics are riding high as they welcome the Denver Nuggets to TD Garden on Friday. The Celtics are on a six-game winning streak, improving to 31-25 this season. The Nuggets are 30-24 overall and 15-14 on the road. Boston has some degree of roster uncertainty following a trade deadline that sent five players away in different maneuvers, but the Celtics are expected to have all their regular starters available. Denver will be without Monte Morris (concussion), Jamal Murray (knee) and Michael Porter Jr. (back).

Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the five-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 217.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Nuggets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 65-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Nuggets, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Celtics:

• Nuggets vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -5
• Nuggets vs. Celtics over-under: 217.5 points
• Nuggets vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -210, Nuggets +175
• DEN: The Nuggets are 13-16 against the spread in road games
• BOS: The Celtics are 12-15-1 against the spread in home games

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver’s offense is potent, and the team has defensive strengths as well. The Nuggets are in the top eight of the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring more than 1.12 points per possession. Denver is also in the top three of the league in field-goal percentage, 2-point percentage, assists and assist percentage, with above-average 3-point shooting. The Nuggets have real edges on the other end of the floor against Boston, with the Celtics sporting below-average marks in field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and free- throw creation. 

Denver is No. 1 in the NBA in defensive rebound rate, securing 75.1 percent of missed shots by opponents, and the Nuggets also lead the league in second-chance points allowed (11.0 per game). Denver is in the top 10 of the NBA in fast-break points allowed (11.4 per game), 3-point percentage allowed (34.1 percent), 3-pointers allowed (11.7 per game) and free-throw attempts allowed (20.7 per game).

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston’s defense leads the way, but the team’s offense has come alive recently, The Celtics are 11-4 in the last 15 games, with the offense producing 1.15 points per possession during that time. Boston also leads the NBA in free-throw accuracy at 81.6 percent, with an above-average offensive rebound rate of 27.9 percent. On defense, the Celtics are dominant, leading the NBA with a defensive rating of 101.1 since Jan. 1. 

For the full season, Boston is No. 3 in the league in defensive rating (105.5), with top-two marks in field-goal percentage allowed, assists allowed, blocked shots and points allowed in the paint. Opponents are making only 33.9 percent of 3-point attempts per game and, while Denver is No. 29 in the NBA in free-throw creation on offense, Boston is near the top of the league in preventing free-throw attempts. Boston should also benefit from Denver ranking in the bottom 10 of the NBA in both turnover creation and blocked shots on defense.

How to make Celtics vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.