NFL Week 16 early odds: Patriots slim favorites vs. Bills; Chiefs move to double-digit favorite vs. Steelers

Week 15 in the NFL was a doozy. COVID hit the league harder than ever this season with multiple games needing to be rescheduled, which created two games being played on Monday and a couple more set for Tuesday. The games that we have already seen kick off gave us no shortage of surprises. The Cardinals were blown out by the Lions, Houston took down Jacksonville, and the Saints pulled off the upset against the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Needless to say, it’s been a crazy week.  

While we wait for Week 15 to officially wrap up over the next few days, let’s jump in and begin our research into this next collection of games and see what the opening lines are for each contest across the upcoming slate. 

Week 16 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

49ers (8-6) at Titans (9-5), Thursday 

Opening line: PICK

San Francisco has since bumped up to a 3.5-point favorite in this head-to-head following their blowout win over the Falcons. The Niners have won five of their last six and have been particularly strong on the road, owning a 5-2 straight-up record away from Santa Clara. They are also above .500 against the spread as the road team this season with a 4-3 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off a loss to the Steelers where the passing game seemed to struggle tremendously. However, this may be a favorable spot for Tennessee, who is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog this season.  

Browns (7-6) at Packers (11-3), Saturday 

Opening line: Packers -7

Cleveland still has its game on Monday night against the Raiders, so there may not be too much movement in terms of the spread until that game concludes and if there is more clarity on the team’s COVID outbreak. Still, the Packers should be pretty heavily favored as they currently own the best record in the NFL and are tied for a league-best 11-3 ATS on the year. Green Bay will also be putting its undefeated home record (6-0) against the spread to the test when hosting the Browns at Lambeau on Christmas. With the Browns on a short week that could play even more into the Packers hands as they are 2-0 ATS this season when they have the rest advantage. 

Colts (8-6) at Cardinals (10-4), Saturday 

Opening line: Cardinals -4.5

There has been serious blowback following the Cardinals loss to the Lions. After opening up as a 4.5-point favorite against Indy, the spread has since dropped to Cardinals -1.5. That’s partially due to Arizona’s loss to Detroit, but also the Colts continuing to play well as they are fresh off a win against New England. Indy is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog this season, while the Cardinals have struggled at home, owning a 2-4 ATS record.  

Giants (4-10) at Eagles (6-7) 

Opening line: Eagles -8.5

Philly has since bumped up to a 10-point favorite as the Giants continue to fall further down the standings. In the loss to Dallas on Sunday, New York benched backup quarterback Mike Glennon for third-stringer Jake Fromm as Daniel Jones continues to miss time with injury. It remains to be seen who’ll be under center for the Giants in Week 16, but they’ll be dogs regardless. As a favorite, Philadelphia is 3-1 ATS this season with an average margin of victory sitting at 14.5 points. That said, they will be facing an Eagles team that will be playing on a particularly short week as their game with Washington was moved to Tuesday. On short rest, the Eagles are 0-1 ATS this season.

Rams (9-4) at Vikings (6-7) 

Opening line: Rams -3

Both of these teams have yet to play their Week 15 matchup yet. Barring any significant injuries, Los Angeles will continue to be looked at as the road favorite. Being a road favorite hasn’t been a particularly favorable spot for the Rams, however, as they are 2-4 ATS in that setting this season. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 2-0 ATS as a home dog.  

Bills (8-6) at Patriots (9-5) 

Opening line: Patriots -2

There was some blowback following New England’s loss to the Colts and moved this line down to Patriots -1. However, it has since recovered and actually surpassed its opening number to -2.5. This game could very well solidify the AFC East title and should be a much different game than that windy affair we saw just a few weeks ago up in Buffalo. The Patriots have responded well to losses this season and have a 3-1 ATS record in the following game. Meanwhile, the Bills have played well on the road to this point in the year and own an NFL-best average margin of victory of 13.4 points away from Buffalo entering Week 16. 

Buccaneers (10-4) at Panthers (5-9) 

Opening line: Buccaneers -11.5

The Buccaneers had a nightmarish loss to the Saints on Sunday night. Not only were they shut out, but they lost several key pieces to the offense, including running back Leonard Fournette along with receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Despite those losses, Tampa Bay is still looked at as a double-digit favorite in Week 16, which might say more about Carolina. The Panthers are 5-9 ATS this season and are 2-5 ATS at home. However, the Bucs have not been too kind to bettors in this setting this season. As a road favorite, Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS, so this could be a scenario to take the 11.5 points with Carolina and hope for the Buccaneers struggles to continue. 

Jaguars (2-12) at Jets (3-11) 

Opening line: Jets -1.5

New York has since jumped to a 2.5-point favorite in this less-than-primetime matchup with Jacksonville. The firing of Urban Meyer wasn’t enough to spring the Jaguars in Week 15 as they were shelled by the Texans, 30-16. Meanwhile, the Jets were able to hang around with the Dolphins and were even tied midway through the fourth quarter. New York has yet to be favored this season, so this is uncharted territory for them. As for Jacksonville, they are 2-4 ATS on the road. 

Lions (2-11-1) at Falcons (6-8) 

Opening line: Falcons -6.5

Detroit came out of the clouds to deliver arguably the most surprising upset of the season as they took down the Cardinals 30-12 at home. That — along with Atlanta’s loss to the 49ers — has brought this number down to Falcons -4.5. The Lions have been a great bet all season as they are 9-5 ATS, which is tied for the second-best record in the NFL. Atlanta has been solid as a favorite this season as they are 3-2 ATS, but when you specifically look at how they’ve done as a home favorite, they are 0-2 ATS.  

Chargers (8-6) at Texans (3-11) 

Opening line: Chargers -10.5

The Chargers are coming off an overtime loss to the Chiefs last Thursday, but they’ll get a solid landing spot in the Texans. Houston did snap a three-game losing streak on Sunday, but it came against the Jaguars. L.A. will be a much tougher foe for David Culley’s team and they are looking to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. The Chargers have played well away from SoFi Stadium, owning a 4-2 ATS record on the road this season. 

Ravens (8-6) at Bengals (8-6) 

Opening line: Bengals -2.5

The Ravens are starting to come undone after they’ve lost their third-straight game on Sunday and are now looking up to the Bengals — and possibly the Browns — in the AFC North. If they fall in Cincinnati, their playoff hopes could be dashed, so they’ll likely be laying it all on the line. On the other side, the Bengals were able to hang on to defeat the Broncos in Denver and are set to begin a two-game stretch at home. That may not be the best thing for Joe Burrow and company, however, as they are 2-5 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 2-0 ATS as a road dog.   

Bears (4-9) at Seahawks (5-8) 

Opening line: Seahawks -7

Both of these teams have yet to play in Week 15, so the lines will likely move more significantly by midweek. Currently, Seattle is a seven-point home favorite. That advantage will likely either stay the same or increase barring some unforeseen injury. Seattle is 7-6 ATS this season entering Week 15, while Chicago currently sits at 4-9 ATS. On the road, the Bears are tied for a league-worst 2-5 ATS record. 

Steelers (7-6-1) at Chiefs (10-4) 

Opening line: Chiefs -9.5

Kansas City has bumped up to a double-digit favorite with the line now sitting at Chiefs -10. Andy Reid’s team has completely flipped the switch over these last few weeks and has won seven straight. They are also the No. 1 seed in AFC and will look to close out the season over these next few weeks by earning the lone bye in the conference. While simply laying the points and riding with the red hot Chiefs may be the way some go, it’s worth pointing out that K.C. is 3-5 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Broncos (7-7) at Raiders (6-7) 

Opening line: Broncos -1

This line has completely flipped with the Raiders now sitting as the 1-point favorite. This spread will likely continue to move throughout the week, especially once the status of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater — who left Week 15 due to injury — becomes more clear. Las Vegas also still has its Week 15 game set to go against Cleveland on Monday. As a road dog, Denver is 1-2 ATS on the season.  

Washington (6-7) at Cowboys (10-4) 

Opening line: Cowboys -9

Dallas is now a 10-point favorite over Washington for Week 16. The Football Team will not play its Week 15 game until Tuesday, so they’ll be at a rest disadvantage on Sunday. When given the rest advantage, the Cowboys — who are tied for an NFL best 11-3 ATS this season — are 2-0 ATS. As a home favorite, Dallas is also 4-2 ATS. 

Dolphins (7-7) at Saints (7-7), Monday 

Opening line: Saints -3.5

Despite New Orleans’ upset win over the Bucs, this spread dipped to Saints -3 coming out of Sunday. Miami has flown under the radar a bit as they have won six straight and are back to .500 on the season. They are also 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, so that could be what is pulling this spread back in their direction a bit. There’s also the nugget that the Saints haven’t been a strong bet at home. This season, they are 1-4 ATS as the home team, which certainly trends favorably towards Brian Flores’ team.