Corner Picks: Best bets, predictions odds for Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid, Liverpool-Aston Villa, and more

Do you ever feel as if your fandom comes at a cost? Or at least a balance sheet? I feel like I’m transferring money from one account to another when it comes to the clubs I root for in soccer.

The two clubs I care the most about are Aston Villa in England and Napoli in Italy. Neither is allowed to succeed at the same time. For the first few months, Napoli were the best team in Serie A and were on top of the table. Meanwhile, in the Premier League, Aston Villa had sold their best player (Jack Grealish) to Manchester City and the club found itself unable to figure out a successful way of playing without him. This ultimately resulted in a five-match losing streak that saw manager Dean Smith fired and replaced with Stephen Gerrard.

Under Gerrard, Villa have won three of four matches and moved from skirting the relegation zone to the top half of the table. That’s great! But to pay for that success as a fan, I’ve had to withdraw from my Napoli account. While Napoli had held on to first place, they began suffering injuries and suspensions. Then last weekend happened. As Aston Villa beat Leicester City 2-1 to move into 10th place, Napoli began the weekend atop Serie A and finished it in third place following a 3-2 loss to Atalanta.

You pay for one with the other. But, hey, maybe this weekend’s bets will all win, and I’ll be able to pay for both. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid, Sun. 3 p.m, ESPN+

El Derbi Madrileño, also known as El Derbi or The Madrid Derby, takes place Sunday afternoon and is probably the weekend’s biggest game. It comes after both teams finished group play in the Champions League and moved on, though Real Madrid had a much easier path. Real was shocked in a 2-1 loss to Sheriff Tiraspol but won their other five matches by a combined score of 13-1, including two wins over Inter Milan. Atletico, on the other hand, were in the Group of Death and needed a 3-1 win over Porto to finish second behind Liverpool. The match reflected what the entire season has been like for Atlético: a struggle.

While Barcelona’s struggles grab the headlines in Spain, Atletico Madrid are in fourth place and 10 points behind Real Madrid in the standings. And while they leads the league with the least expected goals (xG) allowed, the 16 goals they’ve given up in 15 matches ranks only seventh. I don’t think it’s bad luck, as much as a team that’s aging a bit and just not as solid. That’s particularly true away from home, which is where they’ll be Sunday. Atléti have allowed only six goals on 4.9 xG in eight home matches in league play, which is terrific. On the road, those numbers inflate to 10 goals allowed on 7.3 xG in seven matches. And that hasn’t just been the case in La Liga, but the Champions League as well. Diego Simeone’s team has always been known for being a giant pain in the butt to break down, but that’s not the case this season, and they aren’t potent enough in attack to make up for it.

Meanwhile, Real’s been the best team in Spain all season long. I’m not going to overthink it. The Pick: Real Madrid (+111)

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa, Sat. 10 a.m, USA Network

As I mentioned up top, Aston Villa have improved under Steven Gerrard, and now Gerrard is facing the club where he grew up and became Steven Gerrard. This match will mean a lot to him, and I don’t expect him to change his approach. While Villa have improved under Gerrard, the truth is that the team’s attack is largely dependent on set pieces and corners. They’ve struggled to score in open play all season and still are. Where they’ve improved is defensively.

In 11 matches under Dean Smith, Villa allowed an average xG of 1.45 per match. In four matches under Gerrard, that number has plummeted to 0.85, including holding Manchester City to only 0.9 in a 2-1 loss. Gerrard has Villa playing a 4-3-2-1 formation that features two “attacking” midfielders playing inside rather than on the wings. Essentially, he’s trying to clog up the middle of the field, and it’s been effective. It should continue, and I expect it’ll frustrate Liverpool enough to keep this game from having too many goals. Also, as I said, Villa is set-piece dependent at the moment, and I’m not sure how much of the ball they’ll see in this match to get itself in position for those set pieces. The Pick: Under 3.5 (-130)

Sassuolo vs. Lazio, Sun. 12 p.m, Paramount+

Say it with me now: Lazio Overs. LaziOvers. They’re all the rage in these gambling streets! Lazio’s been a mess defensively for weeks, and I’m going to ride this money train until it derails. What makes this an even more perfect scenario is that Lazio’s defense has been much worse on the road than at home. While the club has allowed an average xG of 1.4 (not great!) in eight home league matches, on the road, that number spikes to 1.55 (even worse!).

Then there’s Sassuolo, who have been on fire in attack lately, even if the results haven’t been excellent. Sassuolo have managed only 13 points from their last nine matches despite averaging 2.11 goals per match and scoring at least two in eight of them. These two teams cannot stop scoring or allowing goals, so instead of taking the Over 2.5, I’m going with an alternate line. Don’t be shocked if this thing finishes 3-2 or higher. The Pick: Over 3.5 (+150)

Weekend Parlay

Atlético Madrid screwed up last week’s parlay — I swear that’s not why I’m betting against it this week — but maybe we can get back on the winning side of the ledger with this week’s. It pays +115.

• Manchester City (-700)
• Fiorentina (-320)
• Bayern Munich (-450)
• Inter Milan (-580)