Saints at Seahawks picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for ‘Monday Night Football’ in Week 7
Written by Lucky Wilson | KGTO Writer on October 25, 2021
The Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints will wrap up Week 7 in the NFL when these squads square off at Lumen Field on “Monday Night Football.” Seattle comes into this home matchup following an overtime loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh during what was Geno Smith’s first start following the finger injury to Russell Wilson. That was the Seahawks’ second consecutive loss and they’ll look to rebound against a Saints team that is fresh off a Week 6 bye.
In this space, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also take a look at a number of player props and hand in our picks for how we see this prime-time matchup unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Oct. 25 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Saints -4. O/U 42
Line movement
Latest Odds:
Seattle Seahawks
+4
New Orleans originally opened as a 3-point favorite in this head-to-head, but this spread was quick to bump up past the field-goal threshold. This number went as high as Saints -5 but has since started to tick down to Saints -4 on the eve of this matchup.
The pick: Saints -4. The bye week came at the right time for the Saints, who appear to be getting a number of players back from injury against Seattle. While the Seahawks’ defense did put together one of its better showings of the season last week in Pittsburgh, I’m not sure it’ll be wise to lean on Smith, especially with under a touchdown spread in my back pocket. In that loss to the Steelers, Seattle’s offense led by Smith managed just 4.8 yards per play, which hardly gets the juices flowing.
Key trend: Saints are 11-3 ATS vs. teams with a losing record.
Over/Under total
This total opened at 43.5 and did jump up as high as 44.5, but has since started to fall, which could largely be due to the poor weather conditions expected during the game. As of Sunday night, the total sits at 42.
The pick: Under 42. New Orleans is allowing just 18.2 points per game this season and 20.7 over their last three contests. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are fresh off a strong day on defense last week against Pittsburgh and they’ll be looking to build off that at home on Monday night. Of course, the fact that Geno Smith is still under center instead of Russell Wilson still lowers the ceiling on Seattle’s offense as well. Then, there’s the poor weather forecasted for Seattle at kickoff. According to weather.com, winds are predicted to reach 17 mph during the game.
Key trend: Under is 4-0 in the Seahawks last four games.
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +140, Under -170)
- Passing yards: 201.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
- Rushing yards: 18.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Passing attempts: 26.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
- Longest pass completion: 34.5 (Over-110, Under -120)
- Completions: 17.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
The Under on Winston’s 26.5 passing attempts at -130 is one area I’m leaning toward in this matchup. Not only could the weather deter the Saints from deploying a prolific passing attack, Winston has gone under this number in all but one of his games this season.
Geno Smith props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +210, Under -260)
- Passing yards: 204.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Rushing yards: 12.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Passing attempts: 30.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Longest pass completion: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Completions: 18.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -190,, Under +155)
The Over on Smith’s 18.5 completions for Monday night might sound bold, but here’s why I like it: The Saints have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete an average of 24.8 passes per game this season and Smith was efficient last week against Pittsburgh, completing nearly 72% of his passes with 23 completions.
Player props to consider
Alvin Kamara total receiving yards: Over 31.5 (-110). Kamara has gone over this total just once this season, but that came just before the Week 6 bye. After a week of self-scouting, it’d make sense that Kamara sees a similar workload in that area of the passing game. Seattle also allowed Najee Harris to go over this total last week.
Alex Collins total rushing yards: Over 41.5 (-115). Collins is expected to play and has gone over this total in three straight games, including last week when he rushed for 101 yards. The Saints are stout against the run, but the amount of volume he’s set to receive (20 carries in Week 6) makes this relatively low number attainable.
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