Jets at Patriots picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for AFC East battle in Week 7

The Patriots and Jets will put a bow on their regular-season series on Sunday when these AFC East rivals square off at Gillette Stadium. New England took the first matchup of the season down in East Rutherford by picking off New York rookie quarterback Zach Wilson four times en route to a 25-6 romp. That said, Bill Belichick’s team has found little success through the first six weeks and is still without a win in Foxborough, going 0-4 to begin the season at home for the first time since 1993. As for the Jets, they are coming into this matchup well rested after a Week 6 bye. 

New England is looked at as a touchdown favorite in this head-to-head and it’s that angle where we’ll spend our main focus in this space. Below, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles in this divisional matchup. Along with the spread and total, we’ll also look at a couple of player props and hand in our picks for how we see this game going down. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 24 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Patriots -7, O/U 42.5

Line movement

Latest Odds:

New England Patriots
-7

The early line for this game was Patriots -7 but then opened at Patriots -6.5 last Sunday following the overtime loss to the Cowboys. However, New England has since bumped back up to a full 7-point favorite leading into the weekend.  

The pick: Patriots -7. We all know Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks and did a strong job containing Wilson back in Week 2. While New York will certainly make adjustments, so will the Patriots. One could be deploying man coverage against the Jets rookie, who has struggled against that defense throughout the year (49 completion percentage vs, man coverage). While New England is 2-4 on the season, they have been able to hang with the likes of the Buccaneers and Cowboys. Against an inferior opponent, Mac Jones and Co. should be able to take care of business.   

Key trend: Jets are 1-4 ATS this season.

Over/Under total

This total has largely held at 42.5. It did dip down briefly on Monday to 42, but was quick to tick back up the half-point and has stood firm heading into the weekend.  

The pick: Under 42.5. Entering Week 7, the Patriots’ and Jets’ offenses have the third- and fourth-worst red-zone efficiencies in the league. Meanwhile, their defenses rank second and fifth, respectively, in red-zone efficiency with New York holding opponents to 9 of 21 (42.9%) and New England limiting the opposition to 9 of 19 (47.4%). That’s a recipe for a low-scoring affair. 

Key trend: Under is 8-3 in their last 11 meetings. 

Player props to consider

Damien Harris total rushing yards: Over 65.5 (-115). After being taken off the injury report this week, Harris should continue to be New England’s lead back and is coming off a performance against Dallas where he logged a season-high 101 yards rushing on 18 carries. Coming into Week 7, New York is allowing 123.4 yards on the ground this season, ranked 21st in the NFL. 

Kendrick Bourne total receiving yards: Over 23.5 (-115). Bourne was targeted just twice last week against Dallas, but the veteran receiver has otherwise proved to be a solid option for Jones in the passing game and leads the team in yards per reception (15.7). Even if the volume isn’t crazy, he’s in a role where he can top this number with a single catch. 

Michael Carter total rushing yards: Over 44.5 (-115). He’s gone over this prop just once this season, but it was against this Patriots defense back in Week 2. Carter has also seen his snap count on offense rise consistently heading into New York’s Week 6 bye, so he could be on the verge of taking the lion’s share of carries going forward. 

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