Week 4 NFL picks, odds, 2021 best bets from proven model: This five-way football parlay would pay out 20-1
Written by Lucky Wilson | KGTO Writer on October 3, 2021
It’s early in the 2021 NFL schedule, but bettors have already profited by following a several NFL trends that have emerged through the first few weeks. Road teams are currently 28-21 against the spread after the Jaguars covered on Thursday Night Football, and underdogs are a staggering 31-18 against the number. Combine the two trends and you’ll find that road underdogs are covering 66.7 percent (20-10) of the time this season. Which road teams can you trust in the NFL odds this week?
The Colts are two-point road underdogs in the latest Week 4 NFL spreads from Caesars Sportsbook against the Dolphins in a battle between two playoff teams from last season that have struggled in 2021. Should you back the Colts as you make your Week 4 NFL bets, or are there other NFL Vegas odds to attack? Before making any Week 4 NFL picks or predictions, you need to check out the NFL best bets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 4. If you successfully parlay its picks, you would be looking at a massive payout of 20-1. You can only see the model’s Week 4 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 4 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Titans to cover as six-point favorites on the road against the Jets. Robert Saleh knew he’d have a rebuild on his hands, but his first three weeks in New York have painted a desolate picture of the current state of the franchise.
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has been sacked 15 times and has looked flustered by constant pressure, throwing seven interceptions and completing just 25.9 percent of his passes when pressured. The Titans rank eighth in the NFL in pass rush win rate (51 percent), so it could be another long afternoon for Wilson.
The model is predicting that the Titans record nearly three sacks and force two turnovers. Tennessee running back Derrick Henry records his third consecutive 100-yard rushing game to help the Titans win in well nearly 70 percent of simulations with a projected final score of 28-16. The Titans cover well over 50 percent of the time.
How to make Week 4 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other matchups where it thinks the line is off: including a divisional battle and a game between two playoff teams from a season ago. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 4 best bets at SportsLine.
What are the model’s top Week 4 NFL picks? And which other matchups should you be tailing for an NFL parlay with a potential 20-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 4 NFL best bets from a model on a 123-81 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.
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